DE 40 forecast: the index tested the support level

The DE 40 stock index continues its upward momentum despite a pullback to the support level. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: Germany’s preliminary CPI came in at 0.6% in April
• Market impact: the data provides a positive backdrop for the German stock market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

Germany’s inflation data appears moderately positive for the DE 40 index, as the monthly CPI came in at 0.6% versus a forecast of 0.7% and slowed notably from the previous 1.1%. For the market, this means that price growth in April was slightly weaker than expected, suggesting pressure on interest rate expectations could ease slightly. In the short term, such a release could support the German equity market, especially if investors interpret it as a sign that inflation momentum is not accelerating as quickly as feared.

For the DE 40, the impact is likely to be moderately positive, rather than outright bullish. Despite the slower monthly reading, annual inflation in Germany is expected to stand at 2.9% in April, according to Destatis preliminary estimates, following 2.7% in March. This implies that the overall inflation rate remains elevated, preventing investors from fully pricing in rapid monetary easing. Another limiting factor is the 10.1% year-on-year rise in energy prices.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index has formed a resistance level around 24,810.0, while support has shifted to 23,705.0. Quotes are rising confidently and retain the potential to reach a new all-time high. The current correction appears short-lived. If the advance continues, the next target could be 25,370.0.

The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 23,705.0 support level could push the index down to 22,655.0
• Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 24,810.0 resistance level could propel the index to 25,370.0

Summary

Overall, the CPI release is a positive macroeconomic signal, but it is not a strong catalyst for a sustained rally across the entire index. Lower-than-expected monthly inflation eases some pressure, yet the higher annual CPI and elevated energy inflation keep investors cautious. The data may be most supportive for rate-sensitive and domestically oriented companies, while industrials and chemicals can remain under pressure due to high energy costs. The nearest upside target remains 25,370.0.

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