JP 225 could rise on a weaker yen and lower oil prices

The JP 225 index is struggling to recover for a second consecutive session following the yen's decline and lower oil prices. The current price is 64,161. Find out more in our analysis for 17 September 2026.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

• The yen's decline following the Federal Reserve's decision improves the outlook for export-oriented Japanese companies
• Lower oil prices reduce pressure on Japan's economy, which is highly dependent on energy imports
• JP 225 forecast for 17 September 2026: 64,860 and 65,450

JP 225 fundamental analysis

The Nikkei 225 index is gaining around 0.5% on Thursday and rising above 64,200, while the broader Topix is up approximately 1%. Japanese equities continue to recover even after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and signalled the possibility of further policy tightening.

One of the main factors supporting the market has been the yen's decline against the US dollar following the Federal Reserve's decision. A weaker national currency improves the outlook for Japanese exporters because it increases the value of overseas revenue when converted into yen.

Lower oil prices are providing additional support to equities. The market expects oil supplies via Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to recover soon, easing concerns about a shortage of crude. For Japan, which is highly dependent on energy imports, lower oil prices reduce inflationary pressure and business costs.

The advance is relatively broad-based. SoftBank Group shares are up 1.2%, Mitsubishi UFJ 0.6%, Fujikura 2.7%, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 3.1%, and Nintendo 3.3%. The weaker yen and more favourable energy market dynamics are supporting the recovery in JP225 for now.

JP 225 technical analysis

On the H4 timeframe, JP 225 is recovering after rebounding from the 63,000–63,100 area. The latest upward wave lifted the index to 64,860, after which a local correction began. The current price is near the middle Bollinger Bands line, so the market remains in a consolidation phase following the recent rebound.

MACD remains slightly below the zero line, but the indicator line is noticeably above the signal line, while negative momentum continues to weaken. This points to a gradual improvement in the technical picture. The Stochastic Oscillator is in neutral territory, and an additional local correction may occur before the upward move continues.

To confirm a further recovery, buyers need to consolidate above 64,860. In this case, the next targets would be 65,450 and 66,035. The alternative scenario would become relevant if the index falls below 63,680, which would reopen the way towards the 63,100 area.

JP 225 trading scenario for today

• Asset: JP 225
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: recovery
• Key resistance levels: 64,860 and 65,450
• Key support levels: 63,680 and 63,100

Trading scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation of JP 225 above the local 64,860 resistance level would confirm the development of the recovery momentum and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Current price: 64,161
• Entry level: 64,880
• Take Profit: 65,450
• Stop Loss: 64,600
• Risk-to-reward ratio: 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 08:00 AM on 18 September 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bullish JP 225 scenario would be renewed yen appreciation, which would weaken the outlook for Japanese exporters. Additional pressure could emerge if oil prices resume their rise or if global risk appetite deteriorates following hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. A decline in the index below 63,680 would weaken the current recovery scenario.

Summary

The JP 225 index is recovering amid a weaker yen and lower oil prices, retaining the potential for further gains. Today's JP 225 forecast for 17 September 2026 does not rule out a rise towards 64,860 and then 65,450.

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