US 30 index forecast: the index has shifted back into an uptrend

The US 30 index shows elevated volatility, with the trend shifting back to bullish. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

• Recent data: US ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2
• Market impact: the data has a moderately negative impact on the equity market

US 30 fundamental analysis

The US ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2, below the forecast of 49.0 and the previous reading of 48.7. A value below 50.0 signals contraction in business activity, with order volumes and production declining on average. The fact that the index was slightly below expectations and down from the previous month indicates continued cooling of the manufacturing sector. It is not a collapse, but rather a signal of prolonged weakness: factories are planning output more cautiously, and companies are more conservative with investments and hiring.

For the US 30 index, which includes major industrial, energy, and financial corporations, the impact may be more pronounced. A weak manufacturing ISM directly pressures demand expectations for industrial products, machinery, chemicals, and metals. Such stocks often trade as an economic barometer, and deterioration in this indicator may lead to profit-taking and weaker dynamics in the US 30 compared with purely tech-heavy indices.

US 30 technical analysis

The US 30 index entered an uptrend, with the support level at 45,725.0 and a new resistance level at 47,570.0. Volatility remains elevated, so the trend may change in the short term. The nearest upside target lies at 48,475.0.

The US 30 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout below the 45,725.0 support level could push the index down to 44,945.0
• Optimistic US 30 scenario: a breakout above the 47,570.0 resistance level could boost the index to 48,475.0

Summary

The latest ISM report is unlikely to become a turning point for the US equity market, but it reinforces the picture of uneven growth, where services and large tech companies perform better than traditional manufacturing. For the US 30, this implies a more cautious tone: the index may remain under pressure due to weak expectations for cyclical sectors, while anticipated future Fed policy easing will help limit excessive selling. In these conditions, investors may benefit from more selective stock picking within the index, favouring companies capable of weathering a period of weak demand while maintaining margins. The nearest upside target for the US 30 could be 48,475.0.

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