US 500 forecast: the index has updated its all-time high

The US 500 has updated its all-time high and is now correcting. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US Durable Goods Orders in November fell by 2.2%
• Market impact: the data has a moderately negative impact on the equity market

US 500 fundamental analysis

The indicator declined by -2.2% month-on-month, which came in worse than the forecast of -1.5% and significantly weaker than the previous reading of +0.7%. This dynamic points to cooling demand for capital-intensive goods and may signal a slowdown in corporate investment plans in the coming months. For the US equity market, this usually acts as a moderately negative signal, primarily for sectors that depend on the industrial cycle and business investment. Investors may factor in more restrained revenue growth for industrial companies and equipment suppliers, which reduces overall optimism.

For the US 500 index, the effect is generally constraining. On the one hand, weaker orders worsen expectations for economic growth and profits among cyclical companies, putting pressure on the index. On the other hand, softer data may ease inflation concerns and support expectations of a more accommodative central bank policy, which partially offsets the negative impact. The final reaction of the US 500 will depend on how interest rate expectations and bond yields adjust after the release.

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index has formed a resistance level at 6,950.0. Support at 6,725.0 has been broken. The index went through a correction, which led to a shift in the trend towards the upside. The potential upside target now stands near 7,005.0.

US 500 price forecast scenarios:

• Bearish scenario: if prices consolidate below the previously broken support at 6,725.0, the index may fall to 6,630.0
• Bullish scenario: if resistance at 6,950.0 is broken, the index may rise to 7,005.0

Summary

Overall, the latest macroeconomic data create a cautiously neutral backdrop for the US equity market. This suggests the absence of a clear directional impulse: fundamental factors simultaneously support expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve while restraining optimism regarding corporate performance. As a result, the US 500 is likely to trade with heightened sensitivity to incoming macroeconomic data. From a technical perspective, the index may rise toward 7,005.0.

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