US 500 forecast: the index is correcting after setting a new all-time high

The US 500 has reached a new all-time high and entered a correction phase. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US initial jobless claims came in at 198 thousand last week
• Market impact: the data is moderately positive for the equity market

US 500 fundamental analysis

US initial jobless claims totalled 198 thousand, compared to expectations of 215 thousand and the previous reading of 207 thousand, indicating that the labour market is more resilient than anticipated. For the stock market, such a release typically signals moderately positive economic growth: fewer claims suggest layoffs remain limited, employment conditions are stable, and consumer demand and corporate revenues have a stronger foundation.

For the US 500, the impact is usually reflected in either a moderately positive price reaction or a neutral move accompanied by internal sector rotation. As the data reduces concerns about labour market deterioration, it supports cyclical sectors and industries tied to consumer demand. At the same time, if the interest-rate market reacts with rising yields, this may cap gains of companies whose valuations are more sensitive to the cost of capital and limit the overall upside of the index.

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index has broken below the 6,900.0 support level, with resistance formed at 6,985.0. While the index is in an uptrend, the nearest downside target could be around 6,790.0.

The US 500 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 500 forecast: if prices consolidate below the previously breached support level at 6,900.0, the index could dip to 6,790.0
• Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 6,985.0 resistance level could propel the index to 7,085.0

Summary

The decline in US initial jobless claims to 198 thousand compared to a forecast of 215 thousand is a constructive signal for US equities, as it confirms labour market resilience and reduces the risk of a sharp economic slowdown. However, for the US 500, the effect is likely to remain moderate and partly constrained by a potentially more cautious reassessment of rate and yield expectations. From a technical perspective, the index may fall to 6,790.0.

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