US 500 forecast: the index hits new all-time high

The US 500 has reached a new all-time high and entered a correction phase. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: the US Federal Reserve kept the key interest rate at 3.75%
• Market impact: the data has a neutral-to-restraining effect on the stock market

US 500 fundamental analysis

The Fed’s decision to keep the key interest rate at 3.75%, fully in line with market expectations, did not in itself generate a strong momentum for US equities. However, Jerome Powell’s comments significantly clarify the interpretation of this decision. His statement that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate indicates that the regulator sees no urgent need to change course. At the same time, Powell emphasised that inflation remains above the 2% target, and a significant portion of inflationary pressure is linked to tariffs rather than excess demand. This means that, despite recent improvements in macroeconomic data, the Federal Reserve does not consider conditions sufficient for a confident move towards rate cuts.

For the US 500 index, the effect is predominantly neutral to restraining. The broader market benefits from policy stability and the absence of negative surprises, but at the same time faces constraints from expectations of high interest rates. This is particularly relevant for sectors sensitive to the cost of capital, while companies with more stable cash flows and lower debt burdens appear relatively more resilient.

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index has formed a support level at 6,895.0 and a resistance level at 7,020.0. The index is rebounding from the support level with the potential to break above resistance. The target for a possible advance is located near 7,085.0.

The US 500 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 6,895.0 support level could push the index down to 6,795.0
• Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 7,020.0 resistance level could drive the index to 7,085.0

Summary

Given Powell’s comments, the Fed’s decision confirms the scenario of maintaining tight financial conditions without immediate tightening, but also without a clear signal of an imminent rate cut. For the US equity market and the US 500 index, this implies a neutral-to-negative balance of risks in the short term and increased dependence of further dynamics on inflation data and bond market reactions. From a technical perspective, the US 500 index may rise to 7,085.0.

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