US 500 forecast: the index halts its decline

After the sell-off, the US 500 rebounded and formed a support level. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US GDP growth in Q4 2025 came in at 0.7%
• Market impact: the data is negative for the US stock market

US 500 fundamental analysis

A much weaker-than-expected US quarterly GDP growth release, with the actual figure coming in at 0.7%, below the forecast of 1.4% and the previous 4.4%, is generally perceived as a negative signal for the US 500 index. This outcome indicates a noticeable slowdown in economic activity, thereby increasing concerns that corporate revenue and earnings growth over the coming quarters may be weaker than previously anticipated. For the index, this primarily means a deterioration in the fundamental backdrop, as investors begin to revise expectations for economic growth, demand, and business investment.

For the US 500, the initial reaction may be mixed, but the overall balance of factors is more likely unfavourable. On the one hand, weaker GDP increases the probability of a more dovish Federal Reserve stance in the future, which typically supports equity valuations via lower bond yields and a lower cost of capital. If the market decides this is not a temporary deviation but the start of a more persistent weakening in activity, the index may come under pressure, as investors would then focus less on potential monetary easing and more on risks to corporate earnings.

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index has formed a support level near 6,625.0, while a key resistance level lies around 6,850.0. Volatility remains elevated, making it difficult to estimate how long the current downtrend may last. If the decline resumes, the nearest downside target could be 6,485.0.

The US 500 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 6,625.0 support level could send the index down to 6,485.0
• Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 6,850.0 resistance level could push the index up to 7,020.0

Summary

Overall, the latest data primarily signals a risk of a US economic slowdown for the US 500 index. The most vulnerable segments are industrials, financials, consumer cyclicals, and partly commodities-related sectors, while healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples may prove more resilient. The key question now is whether the market treats this as a temporary slowdown or the beginning of a deeper cooling in the economy – this will largely determine the scale of the next move. From a technical perspective, the US 500 index could fall to 6,485.0.

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