US 500 forecast: the index hits a new all-time high

After a minor correction, the US 500 index reached another all-time high. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 115 thousand in April
• Market impact: the data is neutral for the stock market

US 500 fundamental analysis

The Nonfarm Payrolls release showing employment growth of 115 thousand jobs, above the forecast of around 65 thousand, is a moderately positive signal for the US 500 index. The data suggests the US labour market remains resilient, despite signs of cooling compared to the previous reading of 185 thousand. This is important for the stock market, as strong employment supports consumer spending, corporate revenues, and overall investor confidence in the economy. At the same time, the figure does not look excessively strong, so it does not necessarily intensify fears of a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance. This balance is typically viewed as favourable: the economy is not showing signs of a sharp deterioration, but it is also not overheating enough to sharply increase rate risks.

This news could be supportive for the US 500 index, especially if investors interpret it as confirmation of a soft-landing slowdown scenario. Stronger employment reduces the risk of a sharp drop in consumer demand and supports earnings expectations. At the same time, the index reaction may not be entirely positive, as a resilient labour market also gives the Federal Reserve fewer reasons to move quickly towards rate cuts.

US 500 technical analysis

The uptrend in the US 500 index continues, but the upside momentum is weakening. A short-term correction is highly likely, followed by a new growth cycle. The 7,380.0 resistance level has been broken, while the key support level has formed around 7,330.0. If the rise resumes, the nearest target could be 7,550.0.

The US 500 price forecast considers the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 7,330.0 support level could push the index down to 7,180.0
• Optimistic US 500 forecast: if the price consolidates above the breached resistance level at 7,380.0, the index could climb to 7,550.0

Summary

Overall, the Fed’s decision appears to be largely neutral, with a moderately positive tone. No rate hike reduces the risk of a sharp deterioration in market sentiment, but the lack of a rate cut limits the potential for strong upside. The most likely reaction in the US stock market is restrained movement with heightened attention to subsequent Fed statements. If investors see signs of future rate cuts, the US 500 index could receive additional support. From a technical perspective, the US 500 index may rise to 7,400.0.

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