Wall Street awaits a new record: US 500 targets 8,000.0

After testing the highs, the US 500 index is forming a corrective wave. Today’s US 500 forecast suggests a correction before further growth.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• According to J.P. Morgan estimates, around 85% of US 500 companies that have already reported quarterly results exceeded analysts’ forecasts
• J.P. Morgan raised its earnings estimates for US 500 companies

US 500 fundamental analysis

Today’s US 500 forecast takes into account that US stocks are entering the week close to all-time highs after a very strong earnings season. According to J.P. Morgan estimates, around 85% of US 500 companies that have already reported quarterly results exceeded analysts’ forecasts. Against this backdrop, the bank raised its year-end 2026 target for the index to 8,000, citing earnings growth and investment in artificial intelligence.

Investment by the largest technology companies in cloud computing and artificial intelligence remains a significant source of earnings growth. J.P. Morgan raised its earnings estimate for US 500 companies to 365.00 USD per share for 2026 and to 420.00 USD for 2027.

A weak July employment report unexpectedly cooled expectations of further policy tightening. This was positive for the US stock market: if the labour market starts to weaken, the Federal Reserve has less reason to raise interest rates again in the near term.

The market is now awaiting July CPI data, due on Wednesday. If inflation comes in above forecasts, interest rate concerns will intensify again, and stock gains may slow. If the CPI data is moderate, the market backdrop will remain positive.

The US 500 index forecast takes into account that market sentiment is currently fuelled by strong corporate earnings, the AI investment boom, and low expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. However, reasons for caution remain: expensive oil, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, and upcoming US inflation data.

US 500 technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the US 500 price formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes continue to form a corrective wave as the signal plays out, with a potential pullback target at the 7,708.0 support level. A rebound from this mark could open the door for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, today’s US 500 forecast also suggests another scenario. The price may continue its upward wave, hit new highs, and test the resistance level around 7,820.0 without testing support.

The US 500 price forecast considers two scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 500 scenario: a correction, with the price testing the 7,708.0 support level, followed by a continued corrective wave
• Optimistic US 500 scenario: a breakout above the 7,777.0 resistance level could push the index higher towards 7,820.0

Summary

Overall, the outlook for the US 500 remains moderately positive: robust earnings and the AI boom are supporting the market, while inflation, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policy continue to pose risks to further growth.

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