US 500 under local pressure, but the broader uptrend remains intact

The US 500 is holding around 7,672 points, with the market conserving strength ahead of upcoming news.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• The US 500 remains within a broad ascending channel but is under short-term pressure
• Corporate earnings and the Consumer Confidence Index are in focus
• US 500 forecast for 25 August 2026: 7,608

US 500 fundamental analysis

The US 500 is trading around 7,672 on Tuesday. US stock index futures are little changed as investors await another batch of corporate earnings reports that could provide fresh signals about the health of the technology sector and consumer activity.

Today, the focus is on earnings from Intuit, Zoom, Semtech, Dick’s Sporting Goods, and Macy’s. Particular attention will be paid to NVIDIA, which is due to report results on Wednesday. The report will be an important benchmark for assessing the resilience of demand related to artificial intelligence.

On the macroeconomic front, the US Consumer Confidence Index is due on Tuesday, followed by the PCE price index on Wednesday. On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will speak at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.

On Monday, the Dow Jones gained 0.26%, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.28% and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.76%. The market came under pressure from a broad sell-off in shares of companies linked to AI infrastructure.

The US 500 outlook is moderate.

US 500 technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the US 500 has entered a correction phase after rising towards the 7,800 area and is now consolidating around 7,672. The broader uptrend remains intact, although the index is under short-term pressure following a series of lower highs. Buyers need to gain a foothold above the nearest resistance level to regain control.

The first resistance level is located at 7,736, with the next one at 7,799. The nearest support level lies at 7,608, followed by 7,544 and 7,481. MACD remains in negative territory, but downward momentum is gradually stabilising. The Stochastic has turned higher and risen towards 70, indicating an attempt at recovery, although there is still no full signal for continued growth yet.

The base trading idea is to buy after a sustained move above 7,736, with a buy stop at 7,737, a take profit at7,799, and a stop loss at 7,697. Potential profit is about 62 points with a risk of 40 points, giving a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.6. The trade idea remains valid until 27 August 2026, provided the US 500 does not consolidate below 7,608.

Summary

The US 500 has come under local pressure and has yet to initiate a reversal, although sellers are no longer as strong. The US 500 forecast for today, 25 August 2026, suggests a slide towards 7,608 before the index turns higher.

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