US Tech forecast: the index enters a downtrend

The US Tech index has lost more than 6.5% from its all-time high. The US Tech forecast for next week is negative.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: US JOLTS job openings came in at 6,542 million in December 2025
• Market impact: the current data has a moderately positive impact on the technology sector

US Tech fundamental analysis

The release of US JOLTS job openings at 6.542 million, below a forecast of 7.200 million and the previous reading of 6.928 million, indicates that demand for labour in the US declined more sharply than the market expected. For the financial system, this is a significant signal, as job openings reflect companies’ intentions to expand activity and also indirectly affect wage dynamics and inflation. When the number of open positions decreases, the market typically concludes that pressure on wage growth is easing and, consequently, that the likelihood of further monetary policy tightening is reduced.

For the US Tech index, the current data is more often perceived as moderately favourable in the short term. The logic is as follows: if inflationary pressure from the labour market eases, the likelihood of high interest rates persisting for an extended period declines. This supports valuations of technology companies, as their value largely depends on expected future earnings. With softer rate expectations, the current valuation of those earnings increases. However, investors remain concerned about excessive investment in AI infrastructure and rising corporate debt.

US Tech technical analysis

At the same time, a second, equally important aspect must be taken into account. A decline in job openings may reflect not only a healthy normalisation, but also an early signal of slowing business activity. If subsequent macroeconomic reports confirm a more pronounced cooling of the economy, this could worsen expectations for corporate revenues, including tech companies. In this case, part of the positive effect from potential rate cuts would be offset by concerns about the pace of corporate earnings growth.

The US Tech index entered a downtrend. The nearest resistance formed at 25,860.0, while the 24,965.0 support level was broken. The correction has transitioned to a downtrend, with the decline exceeding 6.5%. The downside target may be the 24,010.0 level.

The US Tech price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US Tech scenario: if the price consolidates below the previously breached support level at 24,965.0, the index could fall to 24,010.0
• Optimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout above the 25,860.0 resistance level could boost the index to 26,560.0

Summary

Weaker JOLTS data will more likely support the US Tech and the broader US equity market in the short term through monetary policy expectations. However, the sustainability of this effect depends on whether the economic slowdown remains moderate. If subsequent data confirms a controlled cooling without a sharp decline in consumption and corporate earnings, the technology sector may retain a relative advantage. The nearest downside target may be the 24,010.0 level.

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