US Tech rises as expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike decline

The US Tech index maintains its upward momentum, supported by easing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with the price currently standing at 30,783.

US Tech forecast: key takeaways

• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October fell to around 26%
• US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to increase by 90 thousand in September

US Tech fundamental analysis

The US Tech index is rising, with buyers gearing up for a breakout above the 30,835 resistance level. Quotes are being supported by the technology and semiconductor sectors following Micron Technology’s strong earnings report and continued high demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure. In the previous session, the Nasdaq closed 0.04% higher, while Micron shares gained around 3%, supporting interest in AI-related stocks.

The US Tech is receiving additional support from declining expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the October meeting, with the likelihood of another hike falling to around 26% from more than 70% at the start of the week.

Today, investors are focused on the US labour market report for September. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 90 thousand, while unemployment is projected to remain at 4.1%. Weaker data could reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve pause and support the US Tech, while a stronger report could push bond yields higher and limit the index's gains. The US Tech outlook for today suggests further upside if the price consolidates above 30,820.

US Tech technical analysis

The US Tech index is rising after a breakout above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern. The US Tech forecast suggests a continued upward move towards the 32,365 USD target.

The technical picture remains bullish. The Stochastic Oscillator is rebounding from the support line, indicating strengthening upward momentum. A confident breakout above the local resistance level of 30,835 USD would further signal continued growth.

At the same time, an alternative scenario remains possible. A breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel at 30,235 USD would signal weakening buying pressure and increase the likelihood of a further decline.

US Tech trading scenario for today

Trading scenario (Buy Stop)

A consolidation of the index above the 30,835 resistance level would confirm the bullish US Tech scenario and indicate strengthening upward momentum towards the 32,365 target.

• Current price: 30,783
• Entry level: 30,835
• Stop loss: 30,235
• Take profit: 32,365
• Risk-to-reward ratio: more than 1:2

The trade idea is valid until 8:00 AM on 8 October 2026 (server time, UTC+3).

Risk factors

The main risk to the bullish US Tech scenario remains a breakout below the 30,235 support level, which could increase selling pressure, pushing the index lower.

Summary

The US Tech retains the potential for further growth if it consolidates above the 30,835 resistance level, which would open the way towards the 32,365 target.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The EURUSD outlook for 2026 and 2027: key levels on the daily chart, three trading scenarios and the policy gap between the Fed and the ECB that drives the pair.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Where gold could trade in 2026: key levels, three trading scenarios with entry triggers and the forecasts from J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.