Boeing’s business recovery continues, and BA shares retain upside potential towards 292 USD

The Boeing Company reported Q1 2026 results ahead of market expectations, and the increase in aircraft deliveries confirmed that the business recovery remains on track. At the same time, BA shares continue to represent a position on the company’s ongoing recovery, with the base-case scenario assuming a move towards 292 USD.

The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) reported Q1 2026 results ahead of market expectations. Revenue increased by 14% to 22.22 billion USD, while the net loss narrowed to 7 million USD compared with 31 million USD a year earlier. The loss per share also came in significantly better than analyst forecasts.

This performance was driven primarily by an increase in commercial aircraft deliveries to 143 aircraft, marking the strongest first-quarter result since 2019. Revenue in the Commercial Airplanes segment rose by 13%, the defence business expanded by 21%, and the services segment increased revenue by 6%. However, Boeing continues to burn cash: free cash flow for the quarter remained negative at 1.45 billion USD, an improvement from the 2.29 billion USD outflow recorded a year earlier. The main pressure on cash flow came from expanded production capacity, higher capital expenditure, and certification costs associated with new programs.

Management remains focused on further recovery in 2026. Boeing still expects to achieve positive free cash flow in the range of 1–3 billion USD for the full year, increase 737 production to 47 aircraft per month by summer 2026, and complete certification of the 737-7 and 737-10 by year-end.

This article reviews The Boeing Company, outlines its main sources of revenue, and summarises its quarterly results. It also provides fundamental and technical analysis of BA, forming the basis for the forecast for Boeing shares for the 2026 calendar year.

About The Boeing Company

The Boeing Company is one of the world’s largest aerospace and defence firms. It was founded on 15 July 1916 by William Boeing in Seattle, Washington. The company is engaged in designing, manufacturing, and selling commercial aircraft, military equipment, satellites, missile systems, and space technology. Additionally, Boeing offers both support services and financial solutions.

Boeing’s IPO took place in 1962, and the company is listed on the NYSE under the ticker BA.

The Boeing Company’s key revenue streams

The Boeing Company generates revenue from the following sources:

• Commercial Airplanes (BCA): the manufacture and sale of commercial airliners, including the 737, 767, 777 and 787 Dreamliner models. This is the company’s largest segment by revenue, but also the most sensitive to market demand fluctuations, regulatory scrutiny, and technical risks. Boeing is actively working to regain ground following the earlier suspension of 737 MAX deliveries.
• Defense, Space & Security (BDS): covers military aircraft, drones, satellite systems, missiles, and equipment for NASA. This segment delivers stable revenues through long-term contracts with the US government and allied nations.
• Global Services (BGS): aftermarket services, maintenance, personnel training, spare parts supply, digital solutions, and logistics. This division supports Boeing’s customer base in both civil and defence sectors, generating steady profits and high margins.
• Boeing Capital Corporation (BCC): financial services, including leasing and customer financing. This segment helps Boeing clients fund aircraft purchases, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty.

The Boeing Company’s financial position and key risk factors

Boeing ended 2024 with revenues of 66.5 billion USD, down 14% from the previous year. Its net loss reached 11.8 billion USD, significantly higher than the 2.2 billion USD loss recorded in 2023. Negative operating cash flow totalled 12.1 billion USD, underscoring severe financial strain. Despite this, the company’s order backlog remains substantial – around 521 billion USD, including more than 5,500 commercial aircraft orders, which signals sustained long-term demand.

A series of negative factors weighed on Boeing’s 2024 financial performance. Chief among them was a strike by the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), which halted production of the 737, 767, and 777/777X models, significantly impacting delivery volumes. The company also incurred substantial restructuring costs, including staff reductions and internal restructuring. In the defence segment, additional expenses across several contracts further reduced profitability and eroded this division’s margins.

At the end of 2024, Boeing held approximately 26.3 billion USD in cash and marketable securities. However, high debt levels and negative free cash flow pose a risk to the company’s financial stability. Should these figures persist, they could affect Boeing’s credit ratings and its ability to fund future programs.

Despite the challenging situation, Boeing’s management is taking active steps to stabilise operations. Production of key aircraft models resumed after the strike ended. Efforts are underway to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency, with a focus on enhancing quality control and ensuring product safety – critical factors in regaining the trust of both customers and aviation regulators.

At the same time, Boeing’s large order book, government contracts, and the potential recovery of its commercial division offer a foundation for a gradual return to stability.

The Boeing Company Q1 2025 financial results

On April 23, The Boeing Company published its Q1 2025 financial results, which exceeded analysts’ expectations. Below are the key figures:

• Total revenue: 19.49 billion USD (+18%)
• Loss: 31 million USD (compared to 355 million USD in Q1 2024)
• Loss per share: 0.49 USD (compared to 1.13 USD in Q1 2024)
• Operating margin: 2.4% (compared to –0.5% in Q1 2024)
• Free cash flow: -2.3 billion USD (compared to –3.9 billion USD in Q1 2024)
• Aircraft deliveries: 130 units (+57%)

Revenue by segment:

• Aircraft sales revenue: 16.14 billion USD (+21%)
• Service revenue: 3.34 billion USD (+1%)
• Commercial Airplanes: 8.14 billion USD (+75%)
• Defense, Space & Security: 6.26 billion USD (–9%)
• Global Services: 5.06 billion USD (no change)

Boeing’s Q1 2025 report reflected cautious optimism regarding the aviation giant’s recovery. The company reported an adjusted loss per share of 0.49 USD – significantly better than analysts’ forecasts of a loss of 1.24 USD, highlighting the effectiveness of the measures introduced by CEO Kelly Ortberg.

The substantial 57% year-on-year increase in commercial aircraft deliveries, including the 737 MAX, demonstrated operational resilience despite the 2024 challenges related to strikes and regulatory issues. The 737 MAX program gradually ramped up production, with plans to reach 38 aircraft per month by year-end.

The order book grew to 545 billion USD, covering over 5,600 aircraft, providing a solid foundation for future revenue. Regarding cash flow, Boeing showed a smaller outflow than expected, and Ortberg’s forecast of positive cash flow in Q2 2025 reflected ambitious targets. The sale of its Jeppesen division to Thoma Bravo for 10.55 billion USD highlights management’s strategic focus on optimising assets and strengthening the company’s financial position.

Despite this progress, Boeing continued to face several challenges. Trade tensions between the US and China led Chinese airlines to suspend acceptance of Boeing aircraft, forcing the company to redirect deliveries to other markets. A court hearing was also expected in June over fraud charges relating to the US government and the 737 MAX crashes.

Following the earnings release, Boeing’s share price rose by 6%, despite having remained down 9% since the beginning of the year due to regulatory and geopolitical pressures.

The key factor remained Ortberg’s ability to implement internal reforms and restore investor confidence.

The Boeing Company Q2 2025 financial results

The Boeing Company published its Q2 2025 financial results on 29 July, once again exceeding analysts’ expectations. Key figures are as follows:

• Revenue: 22.75 billion USD (+35%)
• Net loss: 612 million USD (vs. 1.4 billion USD loss in Q2 2024)
• Loss per share: 1.24 USD (vs. 2.90 USD loss in Q2 2024)
• Operating margin: –0.8% (vs. –6.5% in Q2 2024)
• Free cash flow: –200 million USD (vs. –4.3 billion USD in Q2 2024)
• Aircraft deliveries: 150 units (+63%)

Revenue by segment:

• Commercial aircraft sales: 19.12 billion USD (+41%)
• Services revenue: 3.62 billion USD (+8%)
• Commercial Airplanes: 10.87 billion USD (+81%)
• Defense, Space & Security: 6.61 billion USD (+10%)
• Global Services: 5.28 billion USD (+8%)

In Q2 2025, Boeing demonstrated a significant improvement in its financial performance. Revenue rose by 35% year-on-year to 22.75 billion USD, exceeding market forecasts. The adjusted loss per share narrowed to 1.24 USD from 2.90 USD the previous year. Free cash flow remained negative at 200 million USD, while operating cash flow turned positive at 200 million USD. The total order book expanded to approximately 619 billion USD, covering more than 5,900 commercial aircraft.

The commercial segment was the primary growth driver, with Boeing delivering 150 aircraft, up 63% year-on-year. Revenue from this division jumped 81% to 10.87 billion USD. However, the operating loss stood at 557 million USD, and the operating margin remained negative at –5.1%.

In the Defense, Space & Security division, revenue increased by 10% to 6.61 billion USD. The segment posted a positive operating profit of around 110 million USD, with a 1.7% margin.

Global Services revenue rose by 8% to 5.28 billion USD. Operating profit reached 1.05 billion USD, with a margin just below 20%.

The company not only improved its financial results but also outlined forward-looking guidance. Boeing expects free cash flow to turn positive by Q4 2025 and strengthen significantly in 2026. Its outlook for 2026 includes delivering more than 700 aircraft, revenue of approximately 80 billion USD, earnings per share of around 3.50 USD, and free cash flow of approximately 5.6 billion USD. A full return to profitability is projected for 2026, as operating losses are expected to persist through 2025 despite ongoing improvement.

Investor response was mixed. Boeing’s share price hit a 52-week high before the report but dropped by 4.4% after the results, despite beating expectations. This may reflect profit-taking following an 88% surge in the share price since April 2025 and caution amid lingering risks.

While Boeing is expected to return to profitability and positive cash flow in 2026, losses and operational challenges persist in 2025. Investors should take a balanced view when considering Boeing shares, especially following the recent 88% rally. The stock may offer medium- to long-term potential tied to the company’s recovery, particularly if free cash flow turns positive as forecast.

The Boeing Company Q3 2025 financial results

On 29 October, The Boeing Company published its Q3 2025 financial results. The key figures, compared with the same period in 2024, are as follows:

• Revenue: 23.27 billion USD (+30%)
• Net loss: 5.34 billion USD (versus a loss of 6.17 billion USD in Q3 2024)
• Loss per share: 7.47 USD (versus a loss of 10.44 USD in Q3 2024)
• Operating margin: –21.7% (versus –33.6% in Q3 2024)
• Free cash flow: 240 million USD (versus –1.96 billion USD in Q3 2024)
• Aircraft deliveries: 160 units (+38%)

Revenue by segment:

• Commercial aircraft sales: 19.64 billion USD (+35%)
• Services revenue: 3.63 billion USD (+10%)
• Commercial Airplanes: 11.09 billion USD (+49%)
• Defense, Space & Security: 6.90 billion USD (+25%)
• Global Services: 5.37 billion USD (+10%)

Boeing’s Q3 2025 report was mixed. The company exceeded expectations on revenue but fell well short on profit. Revenue rose 30% year-on-year to 23.3 billion USD, driven by an increase in deliveries to 160 aircraft – the highest level since 2018. However, the loss per share widened to 7.47 USD due to a one-off charge of almost 4.9 billion USD related to the 777X program. The delay of this aircraft’s deliveries to 2027 weighed on profitability, although cash flow improved: free cash flow turned positive for the first time in years at 240 million USD, compared with a loss of nearly 2 billion USD a year earlier.

Management did not provide a detailed outlook for 2026 but warned that the coming year would be difficult, as the 777X program will continue to consume cash, with improvement expected no earlier than 2027–2028. At the same time, the core programs – 737, 787, Defense and Services – are showing steady growth, supported by a record order backlog exceeding 600 billion USD.

The main issue of the quarter was the 777X delay and the associated 4.9 billion USD provision, which weighed heavily on earnings. In other areas, the company continues to show a gradual recovery: 737 production has stabilised at around 38 aircraft per month, 787 output at about seven, the defence business has returned to profitability, and the Services segment delivered double-digit growth. However, challenges remain – labour strikes at certain plants continue, and legacy losses on the 777X program persist.

Production quality is improving: the number of manufacturing errors and rework has fallen by 60–75%, fuselages from Spirit AeroSystems have become more consistent, and the company has completed modifications on older 737 MAX aircraft. Nevertheless, regulators remain vigilant. The FAA has only partially restored its trust and continues to maintain strict oversight following past violations.

Overall, Boeing is indeed taking steps toward stabilisation, but confidence among markets and regulators remains limited. Any new quality issue or delay could quickly undermine the positive effects of rising revenue and improving cash flow.

The Boeing Company Q4 2025 financial results

The Boeing Company released its Q4 2025 financial results on 27 January. Below are the key figures compared to the same period in 2024:

• Revenue: 23.95 billion USD (+57%)
• Net earnings: 8.22 billion USD (compared to a loss of 3.86 billion USD in Q4 2024)
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): 9.92 USD (compared to a loss of 10.44 USD in Q3 2024)
• Operating margins: 35.6% (compared to –26.5% in Q4 2024)
• Free cash flow: 375 million USD (compared to –4.10 billion USD in Q3 2024)
• Deliveries: 160 units (+181%)

Revenue by segment:

• Sales of products: 20.44 billion USD (+72%)
• Sales of services: 3.50 billion USD (+5%)
• Commercial Airplanes: 11.38 billion USD (+139%)
• Defense, Space & Security: 7.42 billion USD (+37%)
• Global Services: 5.21 billion USD (+2%)

Boeing exceeded market expectations, posting significant revenue and profit growth. Revenue reached 23.95 billion USD, a 57% increase compared to the same quarter last year, far surpassing analysts’ forecast of around 22.40 billion USD. The company also reported non-GAAP earnings per share of 9.92 USD, whereas a loss had been expected. Additionally, free cash flow amounted to 0.38 billion USD, turning positive for the first time in a long period, which also surprised analysts.

The main driver of growth was an increase in aircraft deliveries to 160 units, the best result for Boeing since 2018, which significantly contributed to a 139% year-on-year increase in commercial airplane revenue compared to Q4 2024. Additionally, the successful sale of the company’s digital business contributed significantly to the bottom line. This helped improve operational results despite ongoing profitability challenges in some business segments.

However, despite these successes, the results remain partially dependent on one-off income from the digital asset sales. Excluding this deal, operating profit would have been lower. Boeing still faces issues with operating margins in its commercial and defence segments, which remain a significant challenge for the company.

Boeing’s management forecasts continued improvement in 2026, expecting free cash flow in the 1–3 billion USD range, indicating ongoing recovery. The focus will be on strengthening production of the 737 MAX, certifying, and launching new models such as the 777X. The company also plans to continue reducing its debt load and improve operational efficiency, which should contribute to future stability.

The Boeing Company Q1 2026 financial results

On 22 April, The Boeing Company released its Q1 2026 financial results. The key figures compared with the same period in 2025 are as follows:

• Revenue: 22.22 billion USD (+14%)
• Net earnings: –7 million USD (compared with a loss of 31 million USD in Q1 2025)
• Earnings per share (non-GAAP): –0.20 USD (compared with a loss of 0.49 USD in Q1 2025)

#. Operating margin: 2.0% (–0.4 percentage points)

• Free cash flow: –1.45 billion USD (compared with –2.29 billion USD in Q1 2025)
• Deliveries: 143 aircraft (+10%)

Revenue by segment:

• Sales of products: 19.00 billion USD (+18%)
• Sales of services: 2.22 billion USD (–4%)
• Commercial Airplanes: 9.20 billion USD (+13%)
• Defense, Space & Security: 7.60 billion USD (+21%)
• Global Services: 5.37 billion USD (+6%)

For Q1 2026, Boeing exceeded revenue expectations and showed improvement across several key indicators, although the company remains in a recovery phase. Revenue increased by 14% year-on-year, above the market consensus, reflecting continued growth in commercial aircraft deliveries. The total order backlog reached a record of approximately 695 billion USD, including more than 6,000 commercial aircraft, signalling strong future demand.

The primary driver of revenue growth was higher commercial aircraft deliveries – 143 aircraft during the quarter, surpassing Airbus and significantly higher than the prior-year result. This demonstrates a recovery in production capacity following the crises of recent years. In the Defense, Space & Security segment, orders also increased amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, helping to offset challenges in commercial aviation.

However, there are structural challenges: margins are still low, the company continues to report operating losses, free cash flow remains negative, and growth in orders has not yet fully translated into profitability. A return to positive operating income and stable cash flow remains a key condition for a sustainable recovery.

Management reaffirmed its previous 2026 guidance and expects positive free cash flow in the range of 1–3 billion USD. At the same time, a modest cash outflow is anticipated in the second quarter, with significant positive cash generation expected in the second half of the year. In 2026, Boeing plans to deliver around 500 units of the 737 aircraft and 90–100 units of the 787 aircraft, with gradual increases in 737 MAX production to 47 aircraft per month in the summer and to 52 per month following the launch of the new Everett North production line.

Analysis of key valuation multiples for The Boeing Company

Below are the key valuation multiples for The Boeing Company based on the Q1 2026 results, calculated at a share price of 240 USD.

Conclusion on the valuation multiples for The Boeing Company

For a conservative investor, Boeing does not currently appear to be a cheap stock. Formally, the P/E ratio may seem moderate, but it has been boosted by a one-off gain from the sale of part of the company’s digital aviation services and software assets. Looking more broadly, the overall picture remains weak: free cash flow is negative, EV/EBITDA and EV/EBIT are at very elevated levels, debt remains significant, and interest coverage remains low.

Ultimately, at this stage, Boeing represents more of a position on the company’s continued recovery, as well as on potential new contracts following Trump’s visit to China with a business delegation.

Expert forecasts for The Boeing Company shares

• Barchart: 21 out of 29 analysts rated Boeing Holdings shares as Strong Buy, 3 as Moderate Buy, 4 as Hold, and 1 as Strong Sell. The upper price target is 305 USD, and the lower bound is 204 USD.
• MarketBeat: 17 out of 24 analysts assigned a Buy rating, 4 recommended Hold, and 3 recommended Sell. The upper price target is 298 USD, and the lower bound is 150 USD.
• TipRanks: 15 out of 16 analysts assigned a Buy rating, 1 recommended Hold. The upper price target is 298 USD, and the lower bound is 250 USD.
• Stock Analysis: 10 out of 16 analysts rated the shares as Strong Buy, 5 as Buy, 1 as Hold, and 1 as Sell. The upper price target is 298 USD, and the lower bound is 212 USD.

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The Boeing Company stock price forecast for 2026

On the weekly chart, BA shares are trading within an ascending channel. The 200-period moving average remains below the current price, indicating that the broader trend remains upward. The Stochastic indicator is positioned between 20 and 80, suggesting that the upward momentum has not yet been exhausted. Based on the current price dynamics of The Boeing Company shares, the potential scenarios for 2026 are as follows.

The primary forecast for BA shares assumes further growth towards the upper boundary of the channel at 292 USD.

However, it is also important to consider the alternative scenario, as the technical picture indicates a risk of decline in the event of a break below support at 220 USD. On the weekly timeframe, there is a visible probability of a Head and Shoulders pattern forming, which could lead to the shares declining towards 130 USD. The key level in this scenario remains the neckline at 200 USD. A break below this level would provide an additional signal in favour of a further decline.

Currently, Boeing continues to show signs of recovery, and there are no clear fundamental reasons for a sharp decline in its shares. Nevertheless, the company remains sensitive to the policies of the Trump administration and to developments in defence orders. An additional risk is the possibility of new aircraft-related incidents. If a situation like the 737 MAX episode were to recur, it could once again increase pressure on the shares and significantly weaken investor sentiment.

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