CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. stock forecast: conservative expectations for 2026 weigh on the stock

CrowdStrike reported robust Q4 fiscal 2025 results, surpassing analysts’ forecasts. However, a cautious outlook for 2026 has unsettled investors. As a result, CrowdStrike’s stock price dropped by over 6% following the earnings release.

This article examines CrowdStrike Holdings and its business model, providing a fundamental analysis of CrowdStrike’s report and a technical analysis of CrowdStrike Holdings’ stock based on its current performance. This analysis forms the foundation for the CRWD stock forecast for 2025.

About CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., founded in 2011, is a US-based cybersecurity company. It is known for providing cloud-based solutions that protect against cyberattacks, information security threats, and e-commerce fraud.

On 12 June 2019, CrowdStrike went public on the NASDAQ exchange under the CRWD ticker symbol. Its share price surged by 70% on the first day of trading, closing at 58 USD.

The company’s flagship product is the CrowdStrike Falcon platform. This cloud-based cybersecurity solution uses artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and big data analytics to detect, neutralise, and prevent cyber threats in real time.

Key business segments of CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

CrowdStrike Holdings’ key lines of business include:

• Endpoint security: CrowdStrike Falcon provides security for electronic devices, including computers, servers, and mobile devices. It helps detect and prevent unauthorised intrusions such as viruses, ransomware, and other malicious software
• Incident management and response: the company provides services for the rapid response to security incidents and detailed investigations of cyberattacks. This enables organisations to address the consequences of data breaches or system compromises
• Threat intelligence: CrowdStrike provides information analytics and cyber threat data, helping organisations better understand attack sources, trends, and existing vulnerabilities
• Cloud protection: the company’s solutions protect data and infrastructure in the cloud, including services such as AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.’s main revenue streams

The main revenues reported by CrowdStrike include:

• Software as a service (SaaS) subscriptions: CrowdStrike’s primary revenue stream comes from subscriptions to the CrowdStrike Falcon platform. This allows clients to flexibly use its cloud-based solutions, paying for access based on the number of protected devices or other parameters
• Professional services: the company also earns from consulting, incident management, and security system audits

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Q2 FY 2025 report

CrowdStrike Holdings delivered strong results for Q2 fiscal 2025. Below are the key figures compared to the same period last year:

• Revenue: 963.90 million USD (+32%)
• Net income: 260.76 million USD (+44%)
• Earnings per share: 1.04 USD (+40%)
• Gross margin: 75.37% (+133 basis points)
• Subscription revenue: 918.30 million USD (+33%)
• Professional services revenue: 45.60 million USD (+10%)

Compared to the previous year, the company demonstrated solid growth in revenue, profitability, and subscription revenue, confirming the strong demand for CrowdStrike’s cybersecurity solutions. Clients’ subscriptions to the company’s services remain its primary revenue stream.

Following the software incident, CrowdStrike’s management revised its 2024 revenue forecast downwards. Annual revenue was projected to range between 3.89 and 3.90 billion USD, lower than the previous forecast of 3.97-4.00 billion USD. Adjusted EPS was expected to be between 3.61 and 3.65 USD, down from the prior estimate of 3.88 USD. The company’s management explained the downward revision due to a potential negative impact from the payment of 60 million USD in compensation to clients related to the outage.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Q3 FY 2025 report

On 26 November 2024, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. released its report for Q3 of fiscal 2025, which ended on 31.10.2024. Below is a summary of the report’s key data:

• Revenue: 1.01 billion USD (+29%)
• Net income: 234.25 million USD (+18)
• Earnings per share: 0.93 USD (+13)
• Gross margin: 75.24% (+63 basis points)
• Subscription revenue: 962.73 million USD (+31%)
• Professional services revenue: 47.44 million USD (-9%)

In the Q3 FY 2025 report, CrowdStrike’s management highlighted strong growth in key financial indicators. It is worth noting that the incident, caused by a faulty software update that affected Microsoft Windows systems worldwide and led to significant failures, did not have a critical impact on the company’s revenue or income.

Given the increased demand for cybersecurity solutions, management remains confident in CrowdStrike’s long-term growth trajectory. The revenue forecast for Q4 FY 2025 has been raised to 1.02-1.03 billion USD, with income expected to be between 210.90 and 215.80 million USD.

CEO George Kurtz reiterated that the company is focused on AI-based cybersecurity innovations and expanding its product portfolio. It was expected to continue actively attracting and retaining clients through the development of cloud security and personal data protection.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Q4 FY 2025 report

On 4 March, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. released its report for Q4 fiscal 2025, which ended on 31.01.2025. Below are its key highlights:

• Revenue: 1.06 billion USD (+25%)
• Net income: 260.95 million USD (+10%)
• Earnings per share: 1.03 USD (+8%)
• Gross margin: 78.00% (unchanged)
• Subscription revenue: 1.00 billion USD (+26%)
• Professional services revenue: 50.22 million USD (+2%)

In comments on the report, CEO George Kurtz highlighted a 23% growth in annual recurring revenue (ARR) to 4.24 billion USD, including a record 223.90 million USD of new net ARR. Kurtz said, “CrowdStrike had a great Q4, ending an amazing year.” He emphasised that the introduction of AI in cybersecurity is becoming critical, with leak prevention requiring a platform initially built on such technologies.

CFO Burt Podbere underscored the company’s stability, reporting a 31% growth in subscription revenue per year, an operating cash flow of 1.38 billion USD, and a free cash flow of 1.07 billion USD. He said, “These results underscore our operating discipline and position us well to offer quality services to clients and shareholders.”

CrowdStrike expects significant growth in the fiscal year 2026, driven by demand for the Falcon platform and increased market opportunities. In Q1 FY 2026, which ends on 30 April 2025, revenue is projected to grow by 25% to 1.05 billion USD. Operating profit is expected to range between 252.80 million USD and 258.10 million USD, with diluted EPS between 0.98 USD and 0.99 USD. For the full fiscal year, revenue growth may reach 23-24%, ranging between 4.63 billion USD and 4.67 billion USD, and operating profit is projected to be between 1.09 billion USD and 1.13 billion USD, with EPS between 4.27 USD and 4.40 USD.

Expert forecasts for CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. stock for 2025

• Barchart: 32 out of 45 analysts rated CrowdStrike Holdings stock as Strong Buy, three as Moderate Buy, nine as Hold, and seven as Strong Sell, with a high target of 475 USD and a low target of 185 USD
• MarketBeat: 32 out of 44 specialists assigned a Buy rating to the shares, while 11 gave a Hold recommendation, and one rated it Sell, with a high target of 475 USD and a low target of 275 USD
• TipRanks: 30 out of 34 professionals recommended the stock as a Buy, while four gave a Hold rating, with a high target of 475 USD
• Stock Analysis: 15 out of 46 experts rated the stock as a Strong Buy, 21 as a Buy, nine as a Hold, and one rated it as a Strong Sell, with a high target of 475 USD and a low target of 275 USD

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. stock price forecast for 2025

CrowdStrike Holdings stock is trading within an ascending channel on the weekly timeframe. In February 2025, the price rebounded from its upper boundary and moved downwards. This movement can be seen as a correction within the uptrend. Based on CrowdStrike Holdings’ stock performance, the potential price movements in 2025 are as follows:

The primary forecast for CrowdStrike Holdings stock suggests that the price will test the resistance level at 376 USD, rebound from it, and then fall towards the trendline at 250 USD, the support level.

The alternative forecast for CrowdStrike Holdings shares predicts a breakout above the 376 USD resistance level, after which the stock price could rise to the upper boundary of the channel at 475 USD.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. stock analysis and forecast for 2025

Risks of investing in CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

Investing in CrowdStrike Holdings shares carries certain risks, including the ones listed below:

• Competition in the cybersecurity market: the cybersecurity sector is competitive, with players such as Palo Alto Networks and Zscaler offering similar solutions. If competitors implement innovations at a greater pace, offer lower prices, or combine services more effectively, CrowdStrike could lose market share, which could affect its share price
• Software failures and customer attrition: a system outage in July 2025 could prompt some clients to shift to competitors or postpone contract renewals. If trust is not fully restored, the Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) – a key metric for CrowdStrike – could stagnate or decline as subscriptions expire
• Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty: an economic downturn or budget cuts for businesses could reduce spending on cybersecurity, even if it is considered a critical need. Additionally, geopolitical issues, such as trade restrictions or sanctions affecting CrowdStrike’s international operations, may slow growth in key markets
• Post-acquisition integration problems: CrowdStrike is actively growing through acquisitions. If integration efforts fail, revenue growth may stall as resources are redirected to resolve these issues
• Market saturation: as cybersecurity becomes necessary for many businesses, the total addressable market could shrink in the event of market saturation. If CrowdStrike cannot innovate or enter new segments, revenue growth could slow

Summary

The Q4 FY 2025 report shows steady growth across key financial metrics. However, despite these successes, the company’s projected income fell short of analysts’ expectations, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining current growth rates.

CrowdStrike’s future growth depends on accelerating the adoption of AI technologies, which will enhance the efficiency of cybersecurity solutions and meet rising demand. Expanding and strengthening cloud-based solutions will provide the company with an added competitive advantage amid the increasing need for cloud security. Improving customer retention programs, particularly in response to recent service failures, will also be key to boosting loyalty and reducing churn.

Focusing on these areas could help CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. reinforce its market position and sustain growth in the dynamic cybersecurity sector.