Strong quarter and weak forecast: what’s next for CrowdStrike stock?

In Q1 of the 2026 financial year, CrowdStrike Holdings reported solid growth across key business segments, but its forecast for the next quarter fell short of analysts’ expectations. CrowdStrike shares remain under pressure, and in the short term, they may decline towards the 400 USD mark.

CrowdStrike Holdings’ earnings report for Q1 FY2026 showed notable growth, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) reaching 4.44 billion USD, up 22% year-on-year. This was driven by the success of the Falcon Flex subscription model, which generated a total deal value exceeding 3.2 billion USD. The company posted a record operating cash flow of 384 million USD and a free cash flow of 279 million USD. Against this backdrop, it announced a 1 billion USD share buyback program. CrowdStrike also secured a major deal with a Fortune 100 healthcare company that had previously used Microsoft solutions. This underscores the appeal of the Falcon platform and reinforces CrowdStrike’s position among large enterprises.

However, the revenue outlook for Q2 FY2026 came in slightly below Wall Street’s expectations, raising investor concerns and leading to a decline in the share price of more than 6%. Despite this, CrowdStrike’s strong fundamentals – including steady ARR growth and the successful adoption of Falcon Flex – place the company in a strong position for long-term success in the cybersecurity market.

This article examines CrowdStrike Holdings and its business model, providing a fundamental analysis of CrowdStrike’s report and a technical analysis of CrowdStrike Holdings’ stock based on its current performance. This analysis forms the foundation for the CRWD stock forecast for 2025.

About CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., founded in 2011, is a US-based cybersecurity company. It is known for providing cloud-based solutions that protect against cyberattacks, information security threats, and e-commerce fraud.

On 12 June 2019, CrowdStrike went public on the NASDAQ exchange under the CRWD ticker symbol. Its share price surged by 70% on the first day of trading, closing at 58 USD.

The company’s flagship product is the CrowdStrike Falcon platform. This cloud-based cybersecurity solution uses artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and big data analytics to detect, neutralise, and prevent cyber threats in real time.

Key business segments of CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

CrowdStrike Holdings’ key lines of business include:

• Endpoint security: CrowdStrike Falcon provides security for electronic devices, including computers, servers, and mobile devices. It helps detect and prevent unauthorised intrusions such as viruses, ransomware, and other malicious software
• Incident management and response: the company provides services for the rapid response to security incidents and detailed investigations of cyberattacks. This enables organisations to address the consequences of data breaches or system compromises
• Threat intelligence: CrowdStrike provides information analytics and cyber threat data, helping organisations better understand attack sources, trends, and existing vulnerabilities
• Cloud protection: the company’s solutions protect data and infrastructure in the cloud, including services such as AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.’s main revenue streams

The main revenues reported by CrowdStrike include:

• Software as a Service (SaaS) subscription: CrowdStrike’s primary revenue stream comes from subscriptions to the CrowdStrike Falcon platform. This allows clients to flexibly use its cloud-based solutions, paying for access based on the number of protected devices or other parameters
• Professional services: the company also earns from consulting, incident management, and security system audits

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Q2 FY2025 report

CrowdStrike Holdings delivered strong results for Q2 fiscal 2025. Below are the key figures compared to the same period last year:

• Revenue: 963.90 million USD (+32%)
• Net income: 260.76 million USD (+44%)
• Earnings per share: 1.04 USD (+40%)
• Gross margin: 75.37% (+133 basis points)
• Subscription revenue: 918.30 million USD (+33%)
• Professional services revenue: 45.60 million USD (+10%)

Compared to the previous year, the company demonstrated solid growth in revenue, profitability, and subscription revenue, confirming the strong demand for CrowdStrike’s cybersecurity solutions. Clients’ subscriptions to the company’s services remain its primary revenue stream.

Following the software incident, CrowdStrike’s management revised its 2024 revenue forecast downwards. Annual revenue was projected to range between 3.89 and 3.90 billion USD, lower than the previous forecast of 3.97-4.00 billion USD. Adjusted EPS was expected to be between 3.61 and 3.65 USD, down from the prior estimate of 3.88 USD. The company’s management explained the downward revision due to a potential negative impact from the payment of 60 million USD in compensation to clients related to the outage.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Q3 FY2025 report

On 26 November 2024, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. released its report for Q3 of fiscal 2025, which ended on 31.10.2024. Below is a summary of the report’s key data:

• Revenue: 1.01 billion USD (+29%)
• Net income: 234.25 million USD (+18)
• Earnings per share: 0.93 USD (+13)
• Gross margin: 75.24% (+63 basis points)
• Subscription revenue: 962.73 million USD (+31%)
• Professional services revenue: 47.44 million USD (-9%)

In the Q3 FY2025 report, CrowdStrike’s management highlighted strong growth across key financial indicators. Notably, the incident, caused by a faulty software update that affected Microsoft Windows systems worldwide and led to significant disruptions, did not have a severe impact on the company’s revenue or profit.

Given the increased demand for cybersecurity solutions, management remains confident in CrowdStrike’s long-term growth trajectory. The revenue forecast for Q4 FY2025 has been raised to 1.02-1.03 billion USD, with income expected to be between 210.90 and 215.80 million USD.

CEO George Kurtz reaffirmed that the company remains focused on AI-driven cybersecurity innovations and on expanding its product portfolio. CrowdStrike is also expected to maintain strong momentum in attracting and retaining clients through the continued development of cloud security and personal data protection solutions.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Q4 FY2025 report

On 4 March, CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. released its report for Q4 fiscal 2025, which ended on 31.01.2025. Below are its key highlights:

• Revenue: 1.06 billion USD (+25%)
• Net income: 260.95 million USD (+10%)
• Earnings per share: 1.03 USD (+8%)
• Gross margin: 78.00% (unchanged)
• Subscription revenue: 1.00 billion USD (+26%)
• Professional services revenue: 50.22 million USD (+2%)

In comments on the report, CEO George Kurtz highlighted a 23% increase in annual recurring revenue (ARR) to 4.24 billion USD, including a record 223.90 million USD of new net ARR. Kurtz said, “CrowdStrike had a great Q4, ending an amazing year.” He emphasised that the introduction of AI in cybersecurity is becoming critical, with leak prevention requiring a platform initially built on such technologies.

CFO Burt Podbere highlighted the company’s stability, reporting 31% annual growth in subscription revenue, an operating cash flow of 1.38 billion USD, and a free cash flow of 1.07 billion USD. He said, “These results underscore our operating discipline and position us well to deliver quality services to clients and shareholders.”

CrowdStrike anticipates significant growth in the 2026 fiscal year, driven by demand for the Falcon platform and expanding market opportunities. In Q1 FY2026, which ends on 30 April 2025, revenue is projected to grow by 25% to 1.05 billion USD. Operating profit is expected to range between 252.80 million USD and 258.10 million USD, with diluted EPS between 0.98 USD and 0.99 USD. For the full fiscal year, revenue growth may reach 23-24%, ranging between 4.63 billion USD and 4.67 billion USD, and operating profit is projected to be between 1.09 billion USD and 1.13 billion USD, with EPS between 4.27 USD and 4.40 USD.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. Q1 FY2026 report

• Revenue: 1.10 billion USD (+20%)
• Net profit: 184.70 million USD (-6%)
• Earnings per share: 0.73 USD (-7%)
• Gross margin: 78.00% (-100 bps)
• Subscription segment revenue: 1.05 billion USD (+20%)
• Professional services segment revenue: 52.66 million USD (+8%)

CrowdStrike Holdings’ financial results for Q1 FY2026 reflect continued growth and a positive outlook for investors interested in the cybersecurity sector. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) reached 4.44 billion USD, up 22% year-on-year. A high customer retention rate of 97% underscores the lasting value of the AI-powered, cloud-based Falcon platform, which continues to strengthen the company’s position as a leader in cyber threat protection.

The Falcon Flex subscription model saw significant growth, with total deal value reaching 3.2 billion USD across more than 820 accounts, six times higher than the previous year. This offering is driving broader adoption of the platform’s modules: 48% of customers now use six or more modules, 32% use seven or more, and 22% use eight or more.

The financials demonstrate robust liquidity. Operating cash flow reached a record 384 million USD, while free cash flow stood at 279 million USD. These funds will support a 1 billion USD share repurchase program approved by the board of directors, reflecting management’s confidence in the company’s long-term stability and financial strength. At current share prices, the company could repurchase approximately 3% of its outstanding capital. Cash reserves of 4.61 billion USD provide financial flexibility for further investments and strategic initiatives.

The quarter also included a record-breaking major deal with a Fortune 100 healthcare company that had previously used Microsoft solutions and experienced a security breach. The CrowdStrike team rapidly deployed over 46,000 sensors, stopped the attack, and migrated the client to the Falcon platform – including Falcon Complete Identity, Falcon Cloud Security, LogScale Next-Gen SIEM, and Charlotte AI modules – replacing more than three previous vendors and reducing the number of agents by 75%.

The Q2 FY2026 forecast projects revenue in the range of 1.145-1.152 billion USD (up 17-18% year-on-year) and non-GAAP net profit of 0.82-0.84 USD per share. For the full fiscal year, revenue is expected to reach between 4.74 and 4.80 billion USD (an increase of 23-25%), while non-GAAP net profit is projected at 3.44-3.56 USD per share, indicating a potential margin improvement in the second half of the year. Growth in new net ARR is also expected to accelerate, supported by the success of Falcon Flex and strong competitive advantages.

The 19 July 2024 incident, involving an incorrect update to the Falcon sensor, continues to impact the company’s financials, resulting in losses of 39.7 million USD and posing potential reputational risks. Nevertheless, strategic partnerships with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG), and NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), along with ongoing market consolidation around the CrowdStrike platform, continue to reinforce the company’s position.

For investors, the report confirms the company’s resilient business model, underpinned by strong cash flow, a flexible product offering, and a strategic share buyback program, making CrowdStrike Holdings an attractive investment opportunity in the cybersecurity sector.

Expert forecasts for CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. stock for 2025

• Barchart: 32 of 46 analysts rated CrowdStrike Holdings stock as Strong Buy, three as Moderate Buy, nine as Hold, and two as Strong Sell, with a high target price of 550 USD and a low target price of 326 USD
• MarketBeat: 29 of 45 specialists assigned a Buy rating to the shares, while 14 gave a Hold recommendation, and two advised Sell, with a high target price of 550 USD and a low target of 275 USD
• TipRanks: 29 of 38 professionals recommended the stock as Buy, while eight gave a Hold rating and one advised Sell, with a high target price of 550 USD and a low target of 270 USD
• Stock Analysis: 15 of 47 experts rated the stock as Strong Buy, 19 as Buy, 12 as Hold, and one rated it as Strong Sell, with a high target price of 550 USD and a low target of 275 USD

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. stock price forecast for 2025

CrowdStrike Holdings stock is trading within an ascending channel on the weekly timeframe. Ahead of the quarterly earnings release, the share price reached the upper boundary of the channel, which acts as a resistance level. The company’s weak guidance for the next quarter led to a negative reaction among investors, causing the stock price to drop by 6% on the first trading day following the report. Additionally, a divergence has formed on the MACD indicator, signalling a potential decline. Based on CrowdStrike Holdings’ stock performance, possible CRWD price movements in 2025 are outlined below:

The primary forecast for CrowdStrike Holdings stock suggests a test of the support level at 400 USD, followed by a rebound and a rise to the resistance level at 530 USD.

The alternative forecast for CrowdStrike Holdings shares predicts a break below the 400 USD support level. In this case, the price could fall to the trendline near 275 USD, which acts as a support level. A rebound from this level would indicate the completion of the correction and a resumption of the CRWD stock’s upward movement, with a target at the channel’s upper boundary at 500 USD.

Risks of investing in CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

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Investing in CrowdStrike Holdings shares carries certain risks, including the ones listed below:

• Competition in the cybersecurity market: the cybersecurity sector is competitive, with players such as Palo Alto Networks and Zscaler offering similar solutions. If competitors implement innovations at a greater pace, offer lower prices, or combine services more effectively, CrowdStrike could lose market share, which could affect its share price
• Software failures: the incident on 19 July, caused by an error in the Falcon platform update, was a serious test of CrowdStrike’s reputation. A recurrence of such an event poses risks to revenue growth and could affect CrowdStrike’s ability to secure major contracts, particularly in the public and financial sectors.
• Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty: an economic downturn or budget cuts for businesses could reduce spending on cybersecurity, even if it is considered a critical need. Additionally, geopolitical issues, such as trade restrictions or sanctions affecting CrowdStrike’s international operations, may slow growth in key markets
• Post-acquisition integration problems: CrowdStrike is actively growing through acquisitions. If integration efforts fail, revenue growth may stall as resources are redirected to resolve these issues
• Market saturation: as cybersecurity becomes necessary for many businesses, the total addressable market could shrink in the event of market saturation. If CrowdStrike cannot innovate or enter new segments, revenue growth could slow