Oracle Corporation stock forecast: correction in the company’s shares is nearing completion, and price growth is expected

Oracle Corporation’s Q3 2025 financial report did not meet expectations, causing a 5% drop in the stock price following its release. In the commentary to the report, management highlighted the active expansion of cloud infrastructure associated with artificial intelligence, partnerships with OpenAI, xAI, and Meta, and plans to double data centre capacity and increase dividends by 25%. These developments may shift investor sentiment.

This article examines Oracle Corporation, detailing its business model and conducting a fundamental analysis of Oracle’s report. Additionally, a technical analysis of Oracle Corporation’s shares, considering its current performance, is included, forming the basis for the ORCL stock forecast in 2025.

About Oracle Corporation

Oracle Corporation is an American technology company founded in 1977 by Larry Ellison, Bob Miner, and Ed Oates under the original name Software Development Laboratories. Initially, the headquarters were located in Austin, Texas. After rebranding to Oracle in 1982, the company specialised in software development and cloud technologies, including database management systems (DBMS), enterprise software, cloud solutions, and infrastructure. The company is renowned for its flagship product, Oracle Database, and is also actively expanding its cloud services (Oracle Cloud), competing with AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure.

Oracle went public on 12 March 1986 on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ORCL, becoming one of the first technology companies to list on the public market. Today, Oracle is one of the most prominent players in the enterprise technology industry, focusing on business digitalisation and cloud innovations.

Oracle Corporation’s primary sources of revenue

Oracle’s primary sources of revenue are derived from the following business segments:

• Cloud Services and License: this is the largest revenue source, accounting for approximately 86% of total revenue. Oracle provides licences for its software products, such as Java, Oracle Applications, Oracle Database, Oracle Middleware, and others. This segment also includes cloud computing via the Oracle Cloud platform, encompassing IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service), PaaS (Platform as a Service), and SaaS (Software as a Service) models
• Hardware: around 5% of revenue comes from the sale of hardware, including servers, storage systems, and specialised equipment. Production is outsourced to contract partners, with revenue further supplemented by software related to the hardware
• Services: Approximately 9% of revenue is generated from technical support and consulting services. This includes user support for Oracle software, updates, training, and assistance with solution integration. This segment is crucial for customer retention and ensuring stable financial inflows

Oracle Corporation Q3 FY 2025 report

On 10 March, Oracle Corporation published its Q3 2025 financial results for the period ending 28 February 2025. Below are the key figures:

• Revenue: 14.13 billion USD (+6%)
• Net profit: 4.23 billion USD (+6%)
• Earnings per share: 1.47 USD (+4%)
• Operating margin: 44.00% (unchanged)

Revenue by segment:

• Cloud services and licence support: 11.00 billion USD (+10%)
• Cloud revenue (IaaS plus SaaS): 6.20 billion USD (+23%)
• Cloud licence and on-premise licence: 1.12 billion USD (-10%)
• Hardware: 703.00 million USD (-7%) #. Services: 1.29 billion USD (-1%)

Oracle’s results for Q3 2025 present a mixed picture, reflecting both achievements and challenges.

Overall revenue of 14.10 billion USD fell short of the 14.40 billion USD forecasted by analysts, indicating difficulties in meeting market expectations. Adjusted earnings per share amounted to 1.47 USD, below the expected 1.49 USD, signalling a decline in profitability. Furthermore, while revenue from cloud services and licence support grew by 10%, it did not reach the anticipated 11.20 billion USD, indicating challenges with the full-scale monetisation of the cloud market.

On a positive note, the company entered into strategic partnerships with OpenAI, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), and NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), which, according to CEO Safra Catz, is expected to drive a 15% revenue increase in the 2026 financial year that starts in June of this year. In addition, Oracle plans to double its data centre capacity over the year to meet the growing demand for cloud services. Oracle has also invested in the Stargate project, which aims to develop cloud and network infrastructure for scalable computing and AI applications. For Oracle’s shareholders, the pleasant news was the announcement of a 25% increase in quarterly dividends, raising them to 0.50 USD per share.

Expert forecasts for Oracle Corporation stock for 2025

• Barchart: 21 out of 33 analysts rated Oracle Corporation’s shares as Active Buy and two as Hold. The target price for potential stock growth is 227 USD
• MarketBeat: 20 out of 30 specialists assigned a Buy rating to the shares, and ten recommended Hold. The target price for potential stock growth is 220 USD
• TipRanks: 12 out of 14 professionals recommended Buy, and two recommended Hold. The target price for potential stock growth is 220 USD
• Stock Analysis: 8 out of 28 experts rated the shares as Active Buy, nine as Buy, and 11 as Hold. The target price for potential stock growth is 220 USD

Oracle Corporation stock price forecast for 2025

On the weekly timeframe, Oracle Corporation’s stock is trading within an upward channel and has reached the trendline, which is acting as support. Based on Oracle’s current stock performance, the potential price movements in 2025 are listed below:

The primary forecast for Oracle Corporation’s shares suggests a bounce off the trendline, followed by an increase towards the historical maximum of 196 USD. This forecast is supported by the strong demand for cloud services, which could positively impact the company’s revenue.

An alternative forecast for Oracle Corporation’s stock predicts a breakout below the trendline, which could lead the price to drop to support at 125 USD. If this level fails to hold, the stock price may fall to 100 USD.

Oracle Corporation stock analysis and forecast for 2025

Risks of investing in Oracle Corporation stock

Investing in Oracle Corporation’s shares is associated with several risks that could negatively affect the company’s revenues and impact its investors. Below are the main risks:

• Intense competition in cloud computing: Oracle faces fierce competition from giants such as Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), which dominate the cloud technology market. If Oracle fails to implement innovations fully and offer competitive pricing, it may lose market share, reducing its revenues
• Declining demand for outdated software: a significant portion of Oracle’s revenue comes from licences for on-premise software. As companies increasingly move to cloud-based solutions, the demand for traditional applications may decline. If Oracle does not ensure a transition of these clients to its cloud products in the near future, its revenue may shrink
• Customer retention issues: Oracle has been criticised for its aggressive sales tactics and complex licensing agreements, which may cause customer dissatisfaction. If this results in customer attrition, recurring revenue from support and subscriptions could decline
• Economic downturns: Oracle’s business model is oriented towards enterprises and depends on corporate IT budgets. During recessions or economic slowdowns, companies may delay or cut back on spending for software, cloud services, or hardware upgrades, which would directly affect Oracle’s revenues
• Weakness in the hardware segment: Oracle’s hardware business is shrinking in proportion to the company’s overall revenue. Total revenue may decline if this trend continues without successfully transitioning to more profitable cloud and software products

Summary

Oracle’s quarterly report shows that despite continued growth, the company struggles to meet market expectations, particularly in terms of revenue. However, the rapid expansion of cloud infrastructure, integration of artificial intelligence, and strategic partnerships with industry leaders provide a solid foundation for future growth. The expansion of data centre capacity and deeper collaboration with AI firms such as OpenAI, Meta, and xAI highlight Oracle’s commitment to fully capitalising on the AI boom for commercial gain. Additionally, investments in projects like Stargate indicate the company’s intention to strengthen its position in the cloud and networking segments.

Amid Oracle’s substantial investments in AI – particularly in the Stargate project – concerns have been raised about costs, which, according to Safra Catz, are expected to double within the year. This could negatively impact the company’s profitability, potentially limiting its ability to increase dividend payments or allocate funds for share buybacks. However, Oracle’s management has stated that demand for AI-powered computing shows no signs of slowing, offering some reassurance.