The market is underestimating the threat: AUDUSD may surprise today

After a week of decline, the AUDUSD pair may spring a surprise amid the Nonfarm Payrolls release. Quotes are testing the 0.7120 level. Find more details in our analysis for 5 June 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 115 thousand, projected at 85 thousand
• Australia’s GDP grew by 0.3% in Q1 2026
• AUDUSD forecast for 5 June 2026: 0.7090 and 0.7210

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast shows that the pair continues its correction, balancing between positive geopolitical developments and weak domestic statistics. On Friday morning, quotes are testing the 0.7120 mark.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock reiterated a hawkish stance on Thursday: inflation remains too high, and the central bank will do everything necessary to contain it, including further rate hikes; the interest rate is currently 4.35%.

Australia’s GDP grew by 0.3% in Q1 2026.

The trade surplus published on Thursday proved misleading: exports rose by 7.2%, but imports remained virtually unchanged, up just 0.8% after rising the month before. This means the surplus was driven by weak domestic demand rather than stronger exports.

Today brings the key US labour market report, Nonfarm Payrolls. The forecast is for 85 thousand new jobs, down from the previous reading of 115 thousand, with the unemployment rate expected at 4.3%.

The RBA maintains hawkish rhetoric, but weak GDP and a deceptive trade surplus undermine confidence in the hawkish scenario. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is signalling a possible rate hike, while geopolitical tensions are strengthening the dollar as a safe haven. A weaker-than-forecast Nonfarm Payrolls release may support the AUD and trigger a new upward wave.

Technical outlook

The AUDUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band on the H4 chart. At this stage, quotes remain within an ascending channel and may continue their upward wave as the pattern signal plays out. In this case, the upside target could be the 0.7210 resistance level.

The AUDUSD forecast also takes into account another market scenario, in which quotes may continue the correction and move towards the nearest support level at 0.7090 before growth.

AUDUSD overview

• Asset: AUDUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 0.7155 and 0.7210
• Key support levels: 0.7090 and 0.6945

AUDUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 0.7155 resistance level would open the way for the continued uptrend. Additional support for the upside scenario would come from a weaker USD amid geopolitics and the release of employment statistics.

• Buy Stop: 0.7155
• Take Profit: 0.7320
• Stop Loss: 0.7125

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below 0.7090 would indicate a stronger USD as the market reacts to strong US data. In this case, quotes may decline towards 0.6945.

• Sell Stop: 0.7090
• Take Profit: 0.6945
• Stop Loss: 0.7120

Risk factors

Risk factors for the Australian dollar remain further strengthening of the US dollar amid more hawkish Fed rhetoric, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and clear signals of RBA monetary easing.

Summary

The Australian dollar has not given up hope of strengthening; weak Australian statistics may be offset by weak US statistics. Technical analysis of AUDUSD suggests growth towards 0.7210 after a correction.

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