EURUSD at a two-month low: the dollar benefits from geopolitics and economic data

The EURUSD pair appears weak at 1.1605, with the US dollar supported by strong labour market reports. Discover more in our analysis for 4 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair continues to fall, with a deeper two-month low likely
• The market considers a Federal Reserve interest rate hike before the end of the year highly likely
• EURUSD forecast for 4 June 2026: 1.1585

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is consolidating near 1.1605 on Thursday, with the major currency pair remaining near two-month lows. The US currency is supported by strong US labour market data, which is fuelling expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy.

According to the latest ADP report, US private-sector employment rose by 122 thousand jobs in May, exceeding market forecasts and reaching its highest level since January 2025.

Previously released JOLTS data further confirmed economic resilience, with job openings in April rising to the highest level since November 2024, signalling continued robust demand for labour.

Investors are now focused on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which should provide a clearer picture of the state of the US labour market and the future outlook for the Federal Reserve’s policy.

Tensions in the Middle East are also supporting the dollar. High oil prices are increasing inflation risks and raising the likelihood that the Fed will be forced to keep rates high for longer.

The market has markedly revised its monetary policy expectations, currently estimating the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike before the end of the year at around 85%, up from about 60% a week ago.

The EURUSD forecast is moderately negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair continues to move within a sideways range after recovering from May lows. Recent sessions have seen the price fluctuate between the 1.1585 support level and resistance at 1.1685–1.1690. The pair is now trading around 1.1610 and remains below the middle Bollinger Band, indicating a moderate advantage for sellers. Attempts to rise at the start of the week quickly encountered selling pressure in the 1.1660–1.1685 area, after which the market returned again to the lower part of the range.

The technical picture appears neutral to negative. The price is hovering near the 1.1585 support level, which has already stopped the decline several times. As long as this level holds, the market remains in a consolidation phase. The nearest resistance is in the 1.1660–1.1685 area. To form a more confident upward momentum, buyers need to consolidate above this zone. Otherwise, pressure on the euro will remain.

Indicators are giving mixed signals. MACD remains in negative territory, although the pace of decline is gradually slowing, indicating a weakening bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is turning upwards from oversold territory, signalling the probability of a local rebound. The baseline scenario remains continued trading within the 1.1585–1.1685 range. A breakout below the 1.1585 support level would open the way to 1.1530–1.1500, while consolidation above 1.1685 would improve the prospects for recovery towards 1.1730.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways with a moderately negative bias
• Key resistance levels: 1.1660 and 1.1685
• Key support levels: 1.1585 and 1.1500

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1585 support level would confirm increased pressure on the euro amid strong US labour market data, rising expectations for a Fed rate hike, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

• Take Profit: 1.1500
• Stop Loss: 1.1625

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above resistance at 1.1660–1.1685 would signal a weaker dollar and allow buyers to develop the recovery towards 1.1730.

• Take Profit: 1.1730
• Stop Loss: 1.1635

Risk factors

Risks to the EURUSD upside scenario remain high. Strong US labour market data and expectations of further Fed policy tightening continue to support the dollar. The situation in the Middle East remains an additional factor weighing on the euro. The main event for the pair will be Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Summary

The EURUSD pair remains in a weak position near two-month lows. The EURUSD forecast for today, 4 June 2026, does not rule out a retest of the 1.1585 support level.

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