EURUSD consolidates in anticipation of new market drivers

The EURUSD pair continues to trade sideways, as robust US economic data supports the USD. The rate currently stands at 1.1616. Discover more in our analysis for 5 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Initial US jobless claims rose by 13 thousand over the week and reached 225 thousand
• Despite the increase in jobless claims, the US labour market remains resilient
• The resilience of the US economy continues to limit the upside potential of the EURUSD pair
• EURUSD forecast for 5 June 2026: 1.1465

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is recovering, with sellers unable to gain a foothold below the 1.1595 support level. Overall, quotes have remained within a sideways range for the fifteenth consecutive trading session. The upper boundary of the consolidation stands at 1.1665.

Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East supports the US dollar. US President Donald Trump stated that peace negotiations are approaching the final stage and that Washington has no interest in returning to a full-scale conflict with Iran. At the same time, Iran’s foreign minister noted that the sides have still failed to make substantial progress in the negotiations.

Investors are also focusing on US macroeconomic statistics. According to data released by the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims increased by 13 thousand last week, totalling 225 thousand, the highest reading since the beginning of February.

Despite rising jobless claims, the data still indicates strong resilience in the US economy. A strong labour market bolsters expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep monetary policy tight for longer than expected, which remains a favourable factor for the US dollar.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD pair is undergoing a correction within an ascending channel. However, the price continues to hold below the EMA-65, indicating continued selling pressure. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a breakout below the lower boundary of the corrective channel, followed by a decline towards 1.1465.

The technical picture remains favourable for a downward scenario. The Stochastic Oscillator has formed a bearish crossover, while its readings continue to decline, signalling stronger downward momentum. A confident breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, with quotes consolidating below 1.1575, would confirm a further fall in the EURUSD rate.

An alternative scenario suggests increased buying activity if the price breaks above the upper boundary of the sideways range and consolidates above 1.1675. This signal would confirm renewed bullish momentum and create conditions for an upward correction towards 1.1775.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways
• Key resistance levels: 1.1665 and 1.1775
• Key support levels: 1.1580 and 1.1515

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the corrective channel, with quotes consolidating below 1.1575, would indicate that conditions are forming for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1465
• Stop Loss: 1.1605

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the upper boundary of the descending channel, with a breakout above the 1.1675 resistance level, would signal continued growth in EURUSD quotes.

• Take Profit: 1.1775
• Stop Loss: 1.1640

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD downside scenario remains a possible increase in global risk appetite, which may weaken demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. An additional risk factor is a breakout above the 1.1675 resistance level, which could break the downward structure and trigger a deeper upward correction towards 1.1775.

Summary

EURUSD technical analysis points to seller strength: quotes remain below the EMA-65, while the Stochastic Oscillator indicates continued downward momentum. Under these conditions, the priority scenario remains a breakout below the 1.1575 support level, followed by a decline towards 1.1465.

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