The first ECB rate hike in three years, EURUSD has stalled in anticipation of the outcome

Today, the ECB may raise the interest rate to save the euro. Against this backdrop, the EURUSD pair is forming a correction, with the rate currently at 1.1550. Find more details in our analysis for 11 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The ECB will hold a meeting today, where it is expected to raise the interest rate to 2.25%
• ECB President press conference
• US CPI rose to 4.2%
• EURUSD forecast for 11 June 2026: 1.1500 and 1.1650

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that, after falling, the pair is forming a correction and testing the 1.1550 mark.

The ECB meeting will take place today, at which the interest rate is expected to be raised to 2.25%, for the first time in three years. The main intrigue of the day is not the rate hike itself, as the market has fully priced that in, but the signals that the ECB will give for the future, and how they will compete with the hawkish backdrop from the US.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference today. If she makes it clear that this will not be the last rate hike this year, the euro may receive short-term support. If she hints at a pause, that would be a bearish signal for the pair.

US CPI inflation data for May was published yesterday. The actual reading came in at 4.2%, the highest level since 2023, fuelling market expectations that the Federal Reserve will most likely be forced to raise rates before the end of the year rather than cut them. The gap in monetary policy, with the ECB only starting its cycle while the Fed is tightening further, is narrowing, but it is still supporting the USD.

The forecast for 11 June 2026 takes into account that the EURUSD pair has frozen in tension ahead of the ECB’s first rate hike in three years. The hawkish repricing of Fed expectations, with US inflation at 4.2%, and the escalation in the Middle East are providing support for the dollar. If Lagarde does not surprise the market with aggressive rhetoric, the pair could break below the 1.1500 level and continue to fall.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may continue their upward trajectory following the pattern signal and return to the ascending channel, with the upside target at the 1.1650 resistance level. A breakout above this level would open the door for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests another scenario, with quotes possibly edging lower and testing the 1.1500 support level. After a breakout, the downtrend could continue.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1580 and 1.1650
• Key support levels: 1.1500 and 1.1400

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the support level, with quotes consolidating below 1.1500, would create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1400
• Stop Loss: 1.1530

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

If quotes return to the ascending channel, break above the resistance level, and consolidate above 1.1580, this would signal an upward wave.

• Take Profit: 1.1650
• Stop Loss: 1.1550

Risk factors

The main risks to the EURUSD downside scenario are linked to Federal Reserve easing, which may support further EURUSD growth. An additional risk factor is the ECB rate decision. A larger-than-expected increase would provide additional support for the euro and trigger a wave of growth.

Summary

The euro is attempting to strengthen in anticipation of the ECB’s interest rate decision. EURUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 1.1650.

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