EURUSD on hold: what will Warsh say

The EURUSD pair rose to 1.1611. Today is crucial – the Federal Reserve will make its rate decision, and Warsh will outline the outlook. Discover more in our analysis for 17 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair rose and then paused ahead of the final day of the US Fed meeting
• Geopolitics is also in focus
• EURUSD forecast for 17 June 2026: 1.1625 or 1.1645

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate climbed to 1.1611 on Wednesday and then paused. The market is focused primarily on the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, where the regulator is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged.

This will be the first meeting under the leadership of the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. Investors are closely monitoring his comments for clues about the future outlook for monetary policy and possible changes in the regulator’s approach.

Additional focus is on upcoming US retail sales and housing market data, which will help assess the resilience of the US economy and adjust rate expectations.

At the global level, markets are also analysing the decisions of the major central banks. The Reserve Bank of Australia held the rate steady at 4.35%. The Bank of Japan raised it by 25 basis points to 1%, the highest level in more than 30 years.

Meanwhile, investors continue to monitor preparations for the peace agreement between the US and Iran, which is due to be signed on Friday. The market expects the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore oil supplies from the region. This will reduce inflation risks and limit demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

The EURUSD forecast is moderate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair continues to recover after the sharp decline to the lows around 1.1500. After forming a local bottom, buyers managed to push quotes back above 1.1575. The price remains above the middle Bollinger Band, indicating continued moderate upward momentum and a gradual improvement in the short-term technical picture.

The structure of the move appears moderately positive. After a series of higher lows, the market formed a stable rebound, with the nearest resistance level in the 1.1625–1.1645 zone, where the upper Bollinger Band runs. The support level is located at 1.1575, while a stronger level lies around 1.1500. As long as quotes remain above 1.1575, the chances of a continued recovery remain.

The indicators confirm the buyers’ advantage, although signs of overheating are already emerging. MACD remains in positive territory and continues to signal upward momentum, although the pace of growth is gradually slowing. The Stochastic Oscillator moved into overbought territory above 80 points, suggesting the risk of a local correction or a move into a sideways range. The baseline scenario remains consolidation above 1.1575 with an attempt to test the 1.1625–1.1645 resistance area.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: moderately upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1625 and 1.1645
• Key support levels: 1.1575 and 1.1500

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 1.1625 resistance level would confirm continued upward momentum amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave the rate unchanged, weaker demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, and hopes for easing geopolitical tensions.

• Take Profit: 1.1645
• Stop Loss: 1.1595

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 1.1575 support level would signal weaker buyers and open the way to a deeper correction towards 1.1500 amid possible hawkish Fed rhetoric and a stronger US dollar.

• Take Profit: 1.1500
• Stop Loss: 1.1605

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD upside scenario remains a more hawkish tone in the first speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. Strong US economic data and continued expectations of a rate hike later this year will provide additional support for the dollar. At the same time, a further decline in geopolitical risks and reduced demand for safe-haven assets may bolster the euro and push the pair towards new local highs.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is conserving strength ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and accompanying comments. The EURUSD forecast for today, 17 June 2026, suggests growth to 1.1625 and then to 1.1645.

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