EURUSD remains under pressure after hawkish Fed signals

The EURUSD rate is trying to recover after the decline, but hawkish Fed rhetoric continues to support the US dollar and limit the pair’s upside potential. The current quote is 1.1520. More details are in our analysis for 18 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US Federal Reserve left the interest rate unchanged
• The Fed’s rhetoric and the Chair’s comments were hawkish
• The Fed’s continued tight policy is supporting the risk of a further decline in EURUSD
• EURUSD forecast for 18 June 2026: 1.1385

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is recovering after yesterday’s decline, while buyers managed to hold support at 1.1495. Nevertheless, pressure from sellers remains in place, which is limiting the pair’s further upside potential.

The outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting supported the US dollar. The regulator left interest rates unchanged, but signalled a higher probability of tighter monetary policy by the end of the year. The statement from the Federal Open Market Committee noted steady US economic growth, a strong labour market, and persistent inflationary pressure.

Both the accompanying Fed statement and the Chair’s comments at the press conference were clearly hawkish, which strengthened demand for the US currency.

Despite the current upward correction in EURUSD, the fundamental factors remain on the side of the US dollar. The Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and the resilience of the US economy are preserving the risk of a further decline in the pair, which supports a bearish EURUSD forecast in the medium term.

Technical outlook

EURUSD quotes are correcting after the recent decline, having found support near 1.1495. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a resumption of the downward move, with the nearest target at 1.1385.

The technical picture still points to an advantage for sellers. The Stochastic Oscillator has reached the overbought zone and formed a bearish crossover, signalling weaker upward correction and continued potential for a further decline. An additional confirmation of the downside scenario will come from a confident break and consolidation of the price below support at 1.1495.

The alternative scenario suggests stronger buyer activity if the quotes consolidate above 1.1550. Such a signal will cancel the bearish scenario and open the way for a further recovery in the pair towards resistance around 1.1610.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1550 and 1.1625
• Key support levels: 1.1495 and 1.1405

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation of the quotes below 1.1495 will indicate a resumption of the decline after the current correction and will create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1385
• Stop Loss: 1.1545

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout of resistance at 1.1550 will signal stronger pressure from the bulls and indicate a continuation of the bullish correction.

• Take Profit: 1.1605
• Stop Loss: 1.1535

Risk factors

The key risk to the EURUSD downside scenario remains sustained consolidation of the quotes above 1.1550, which may indicate recovering buyer demand and weaker bearish impulse. An additional risk factor is a possible deterioration in US macroeconomic data, which may reduce support for the US dollar and trigger a deeper correction.

Summary

Fundamental factors and technical signals continue to point to sellers retaining the advantage despite the correction in EURUSD. A break of 1.1495 will confirm the development of downward impulse with the nearest target at 1.1385.

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