EURUSD has yielded to the sellers: there is a chance of a move lower

The EURUSD pair is holding low near 1.1464 as market sentiment has shifted in favour of the US dollar. Discover more in our analysis for 22 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair remains under the control of the bears
• The market is monitoring the Middle East and preparing for the release of US PCE data
• EURUSD forecast for 22 June 2026: 1.1415

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.1464 on Monday. Investors are assessing new signals around a peace settlement between the US and Iran, while also preparing for the release of the key US inflation report.

According to the latest reports, Washington and Tehran have agreed on a roadmap to conclude a final agreement within the next 60 days. This has somewhat reduced tensions after the recent exchange of harsh statements between the sides.

The market’s main focus this week will be on the PCE index, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve. This report could influence expectations regarding the US regulator’s next steps.

Last week, the Fed left the interest rate unchanged, but the accompanying comments were more hawkish. Nine of the nineteen FOMC members now allow for at least one rate hike before the end of the year, and the market is gradually pricing in the probability of such a move as early as September.

The EURUSD forecast is negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair remains under selling pressure after the sharp decline from the 1.1600 area. The pair has broken below several intermediate support levels and is now consolidating in the 1.1460–1.1470 area after reaching new local lows near 1.1420. Quotes remain below the middle Bollinger Band, while the bands themselves are pointing downwards, indicating continued downward momentum.

The technical picture remains negative. The nearest resistance level lies in the 1.1530 area, where a key support level was previously located and where selling pressure is now concentrated. The nearest support is at 1.1415–1.1420. A breakout below this mark would increase the risk of a further decline and open the way to new June lows. As long as the pair remains below 1.1530, the US dollar retains the upper hand.

The indicators are giving mixed short-term signals. MACD remains deep in negative territory, confirming the prevailing bearish trend, although the pace of decline has slowed somewhat. The Stochastic Oscillator has moved into overbought territory after rebounding from the lows, suggesting a possible weakening of the corrective rise. The baseline scenario remains continued pressure on the EURUSD rate, with the risk of a renewed test of the 1.1415 support level.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Short-term)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1530 and 1.1600
• Key support levels: 1.1415 and 1.1300

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 1.1415 support level would confirm continued downward momentum, adding to pressure on the EURUSD pair. In this case, the downside target could be 1.1300.

• Take Profit: 1.1300
• Stop Loss: 1.1480

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 1.1530 resistance level would become the first signal of weaker selling pressure and open the potential for growth towards 1.1600.

• Take Profit: 1.1600
• Stop Loss: 1.1470

Risk factors

A significant risk to the EURUSD downside scenario remains the release of the US PCE price index. Another risk factor is positive news around negotiations between the US and Iran, which may improve risk appetite in global markets.

Summary

The EURUSD pair appears weak and is starting the new week struggling to avoid a further decline. The EURUSD forecast for today, 22 June 2026, does not rule out a slide towards 1.1415.

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