A breakout of 1.1410 will open the way for EURUSD to 1.1065

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure amid the ECB’s cautious stance and a stronger economic backdrop in the US. The main scenario suggests a breakout below the 1.1410 support level and a decline towards 1.1065. Discover more in our analysis for 23 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is trading in a descending channel
• The ECB’s cautious stance is limiting the euro’s strengthening potential
• A breakout below 1.1410 may open the way for a decline to 1.1065
• EURUSD forecast for 23 June 2026: 1.1065

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 23 June 2026 shows that the EURUSD pair remains under selling pressure, trading around 1.1430. Yesterday, the eurozone consumer confidence index improved from −19.0 to −17.7 and came in slightly above the forecast of − 18.0. However, the indicator remains deep in negative territory, so the data gave the euro only limited support.

The market is also paying additional attention to statements from ECB officials. Christine Lagarde stated that the current inflation shock requires a measured response without aggressive policy tightening. This stance implies cautious ECB action and limits the euro’s strengthening potential, especially given the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and expectations of a US rate hike.

The main factor for EURUSD today will be the preliminary PMI data. In the eurozone, the services PMI is expected to rise to 48.6 and the composite PMI to 49.1, but both indicators will remain below the 50 level, signalling economic contraction. In the US, the services and manufacturing indices are expected to remain above 50. If the data confirms a stronger US economy, the dollar may strengthen, and the EURUSD pair may continue to decline. Conversely, robust eurozone data and weaker US figures may push the pair back above 1.1500.

The EURUSD forecast for 23 June 2026 is negative.

Technical outlook

EURUSD technical analysis shows that the pair is trading in a descending channel near the key support level at 1.1410 on the daily chart. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory, adding to pressure on quotes. At the same time, the Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, so the pair could briefly rise before breaking below the 1.1410 support level.

The main EURUSD forecast for today suggests a breakout below the 1.1410 support level, followed by a decline to 1.1065.

An alternative forecast for EURUSD should be considered if the price breaks above the 1.1500 resistance level. Under this scenario, the EURUSD rate could rise to 1.1625.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: D1 (Short-term)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1500 and 1.1625
• Key support levels: 1.1410 and 1.1065

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 1.1410 support level would strengthen bearish sentiment in the EURUSD pair, pushing the price lower towards the channel’s lower boundary in the 1.1065 area.

• Take Profit: 1.1065
• Stop Loss: 1.1505

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 1.1500 resistance level would become the first signal of weaker selling pressure and open the potential for an upward move towards 1.1625.

• Take Profit: 1.1625
• Stop Loss: 1.1445

Risk factors

The risk to the EURUSD downside scenario will come from strong eurozone business activity data amid weaker US statistics. In that case, the euro may receive support, and the pair may rise above 1.1500.

Summary

The EURUSD pair remains in a downtrend amid a weak economic backdrop in the eurozone and the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish stance. A breakout below the 1.1410 support level may open the way for the pair to decline towards 1.1065.

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