EURUSD looks weak: the sell-off is not over yet

The EURUSD pair paused at 1.1366, with today’s focus on the US PCE report. Discover more in our analysis for 25 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair continues to weaken despite local stabilisation
• The technical picture confirms the downtrend
• EURUSD forecast for 25 June 2026: 1.1323

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate recovered to 1.1366 on Thursday after a series of sell-offs.

The US dollar is bolstered by expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Investors are now preparing for the release of key US inflation data.

Following the Fed’s June meeting, the market strengthened its view that the regulator may tighten monetary policy again. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh confirmed his commitment to fighting inflation. Expectations of further rate hikes remain one of the main factors supporting the dollar.

Even progress in negotiations between the US and Iran has so far failed to change investor sentiment. The decline in oil prices to pre-conflict levels helped reduce inflation risks. However, the market remains focused on the outlook for Fed policy.

Attention is now shifting to the release of the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. In addition, this week will bring the final estimate of US Q1 GDP, data on personal income, durable goods orders, and weekly jobless claims.

The EURUSD forecast is negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair remains in a pronounced downtrend. After breaking below the 1.1433 support level, selling pressure increased, and quotes hit a local low near 1.1323. The pair is now trading around 1.1366, attempting a corrective recovery, but it remains below the middle Bollinger Band. The bands themselves are pointing downwards, confirming continued bearish momentum.

The technical picture remains negative. The nearest resistance level lies at 1.1433, where the previously broken support level is located and where sellers remain active. The nearest support is at 1.1323. A breakout below this mark would signal a continued decline, with the price reaching new lows. As long as the EURUSD pair remains below 1.1433, the advantage will remain with the US dollar.

The indicators confirm that the downtrend is prevailing, while suggesting a short-term correction. MACD remains deep in negative territory and is not yet showing signs of a sustained reversal. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned upwards from oversold territory, signalling the probability of a technical rebound. However, the baseline scenario remains continued pressure on the EURUSD pair, with the risk of a retest of the 1.1323 support level.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1433 and 1.1500
• Key support levels: 1.1323 and 1.1065

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 1.1323 support level would confirm continued downward momentum amid expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening and sustained demand for the US dollar. In this case, the EURUSD pair will continue to decline towards the next support level at 1.1065.

• Take Profit: 1.1065
• Stop Loss: 1.1395

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 1.1433 resistance line would signal a corrective recovery and open the way for growth towards 1.1500.

• Take Profit: 1.1500
• Stop Loss: 1.1395

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD downside scenario remains weaker-than-expected PCE inflation data and other US macroeconomic releases. In this case, the euro will get a chance for a corrective recovery above 1.1433. But as long as the pair trades below this level, the advantage remains on the side of sellers.

Summary

The EURUSD pair fell to its lowest level in almost a year amid strong demand for the US dollar. The EURUSD forecast for today, 25 June 2026, does not rule out a retest of the 1.1323 level.

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