EURUSD awaits signals from the ECB

The EURUSD pair is awaiting signals from the ECB and the Middle East. Find out more in our analysis for 29 June 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde
• The US and Iran are planning a meeting
• EURUSD forecast for 29 June 2026: 1.1470

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the pair is trading around 1.1400, in anticipation of several important triggers. The market is gearing up for a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde and for news from the Middle East.

According to CNN, the US and Iran agreed on a temporary ceasefire and plan to meet on Tuesday in Qatar to discuss the situation around the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made it clear that Tehran retains responsibility for the strait, warning that attempts to bypass it will trigger tension and escalation. This indicates that the risk of conflict has not been fully removed, but has been temporarily postponed.

Today marks the opening of the ECB’s annual forum, where central bank President Christine Lagarde will speak. The speech is expected to provide clues about the ECB’s future interest rate policy.

The geopolitical pause is giving the euro some breathing space, but the fundamental backdrop remains in favour of the dollar. Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance and the divergence in Federal Reserve and ECB monetary policies continue to influence the EURUSD rate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed an Engulfing reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may continue the upward wave following the signal, with the correction target at the 1.1470 resistance level. A rebound from this level would open the way for the downtrend to continue.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests another scenario. Quotes may continue to fall and test the 1.1330 support level. After breaking it, they could continue their downward trajectory.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1470 and 1.1600
• Key support levels: 1.1330 and 1.1300

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the support level, with the price consolidating beneath 1.1330, would indicate stronger selling pressure and continued downward momentum.

• Take Profit: 1.1300
• Stop Loss: 1.1350

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 1.1470 resistance level would signal a stronger upward wave with a target at 1.1600.

• Take Profit: 1.1600
• Stop Loss: 1.1450

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD downside scenario is an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and a stronger USD.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is awaiting signals from the ECB. EURUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 1.1470 before a decline.

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