EURUSD gears up for a sharp move after the Nonfarm Payrolls release

Statements by the Federal Reserve chairman bolstered the euro, but the main move in the EURUSD pair is expected after the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls figures. The rate currently stands at 1.1380. Find out more in our analysis for 2 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US ADP nonfarm employment change: previously at 122 thousand, currently at 98 thousand
• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 172 thousand, projected at 114 thousand
• EURUSD forecast for 2 July 2026: 1.1470 and 1.1330

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the pair is forming a correction and is trading around 1.1380 in anticipation of the US labour market data release.

The main surprise of yesterday came from the speech by new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the ECB forum in Sintra. He refused to give any signals about possible decisions at the July meeting and ruled out making statements about the Fed’s further intentions, stressing that decisions will be made behind closed doors. His rhetoric turned out to be softer than investors had feared. These statements partly weakened the USD and strengthened the euro.

The euro was further supported by the release of US ADP nonfarm employment change data. The previous reading was 122 thousand, while the actual figure came in at 98 thousand, which also bolstered the euro.

The euro received temporary relief thanks to Warsh’s less hawkish tone, but the fundamental backdrop remains in favour of the dollar due to a sharp slowdown in eurozone inflation and persistent geopolitical risks. At the same time, the fundamental analysis for 2 July 2026 takes into account that today’s Nonfarm Payrolls report may add support to the euro if the actual figures come in below both the forecast and the previous reading.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may continue their upward wave following this signal, with the correction target at the 1.1470 resistance level. A rebound from this level would open the door for continued downward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests another scenario. Quotes may continue to fall and test the 1.1330 support level. After breaking it, the EURUSD rate may maintain its downward trajectory.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1470 and 1.1505
• Key support levels: 1.1330 and 1.1230

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1330 support level would create conditions for opening short positions and indicate the end of the bullish correction in the EURUSD pair.

• Take Profit: 1.1230
• Stop Loss: 1.1350

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the resistance level, followed by consolidation above 1.1470, would signal a continued bullish correction.

• Take Profit: 1.1505
• Stop Loss: 1.1450

Risk factors

Risks to the bearish scenario are linked to a possible weakening of the US dollar amid lower expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high. An additional factor is US employment data, as weak figures may provide extra support for the euro.

Summary

The euro is once again attempting to strengthen amid US employment data and the Federal Reserve chairman’s statement. EURUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 1.1470 before a decline.

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