EURUSD ends the week higher as the dollar retreats

The EURUSD pair rose to 1.1447, marking the first week of growth in several weeks. Find more details in our analysis for 3 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair rose in response to US employment data
• Expectations regarding the Federal Reserve rate needed to be revised
• EURUSD forecast for 3 July 2026: 1.1362 or 1.1473

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate rose to 1.1447 on Friday, with the US currency under pressure from weaker-than-expected US labour market data. The figures forced investors to revise expectations regarding further tightening of Federal Reserve policy.

In June, the US economy created only 57 thousand new jobs, falling short of the forecast of 110 thousand and marking the weakest result in the last four months. Earlier, the ADP report also indicated slower private sector employment growth. This increased expectations of labour market cooling.

Following the data release, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September fell to around 50% from 67% before the report. Additional pressure on the dollar came from comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who noted easing inflation expectations while also confirming the regulator’s commitment to price stability goals.

The EURUSD forecast is moderately positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, after the downward momentum ended, the EURUSD pair is developing a corrective recovery. The pair rebounded from the 1.1323 area and rose to 1.1440–1.1450, where growth slowed again. The price consolidated above the 50-period moving average but approached the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that the current momentum is waning and the market is entering a consolidation phase.

The technical picture looks neutral with a moderately positive bias. The nearest resistance level is located around 1.1473, where sellers were previously more active. The support level is located in the 1.1362–1.1375 area, while a stronger level lies around 1.1323. As long as quotes hold above 1.1362, buyers retain the advantage and may expect a retest of the resistance level. Consolidation above 1.1473 will open the way for the recovery to continue.

The indicators confirm gradual improvement in sentiment. MACD moved into positive territory and continues to rise, reflecting stronger buying momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator turned down from overbought territory, signalling the probability of a short-term correction or sideways movement before a new growth attempt. The baseline scenario remains consolidation in the 1.1362–1.1473 range with a moderate potential for further euro strengthening.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways with a moderately positive bias
• Key resistance levels: 1.1473 and 1.1505
• Key support levels: 1.1362 and 1.1323

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.1473 would confirm a continued upward correction following weak US labour market data and lower expectations of further Fed policy tightening, opening the potential for further gains.

• Take Profit: 1.1505
• Stop Loss: 1.1450

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1362 support level would signal the end of the current correction and renewed pressure on the EURUSD pair from dollar buyers.

• Take Profit: 1.1323
• Stop Loss: 1.1390

Risk factors

The risks to the EURUSD upside scenario are linked to a possible recovery in demand for the US dollar in the event of stronger US macroeconomic data or renewed expectations of further Fed rate hikes. More hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials may become an additional factor weighing on the euro.

Summary

The EURUSD pair successfully recouped some of its previous losses, but the outlook remains uncertain. The EURUSD forecast for today, 3 July 2026, suggests that the consolidation range will remain between 1.1362 and 1.1473.

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