EURUSD is trapped: the dollar is attempting to seize the initiative

The EURUSD pair continues to recover, but the USD is once again attempting to regain the upper hand amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, with the rate currently at 1.1440. Discover more in our analysis for 9 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The main event of the current week was the release of the FOMC minutes
• Expectations of further ECB rate hikes have declined
• EURUSD forecast for 9 July 2026: 1.1480 or 1.1370

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the pair is trading around 1.1440, continuing its corrective wave after the decline.

The week’s highlight was the publication of the FOMC minutes. Almost all participants at the June meeting confirmed that further monetary policy tightening may be required if inflation persists. This supports the dollar, although the interest rate remained unchanged at the latest meeting. The market is still pricing in a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. The US regulator’s hawkish rhetoric is limiting the euro’s upside potential, despite the pair’s attempts to recover.

A new wave of escalating tensions in the Middle East is sustaining demand for safe-haven assets, which supports the US currency. At the same time, expectations of further ECB rate hikes have declined after inflation in the eurozone slowed.

The analysis for 9 July 2026 takes into account that despite the euro’s attempts to recover, the dollar still retains its fundamental advantage. Until the release of the next US inflation data and further comments from Fed officials, the pair may continue to trade in a horizontal range, and any attempts by the euro to strengthen may be used by the market to take profits or open new short positions.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may continue their upward wave following this signal, with the upside target at the 1.1480 resistance level. A rebound from this mark would open the way for continued downward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests another scenario. Quotes may continue to fall and test the 1.1370 support level. After breaking it, they may continue the decline.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways (within a correction)
• Key resistance levels: 1.1480 and 1.1565
• Key support levels: 1.1370 and 1.1320

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1370 support level would signal the completion of the current correction and increase pressure on the EURUSD rate amid stronger demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

• Take Profit: 1.1320
• Stop Loss: 1.1390

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 1.1480 resistance level would confirm continued growth and create conditions for a move towards the next resistance level at 1.1565.

• Take Profit: 1.1565
• Stop Loss: 1.1455

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD downside scenario remains softer Federal Reserve rhetoric in the published minutes of the June meeting and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In this case, pressure on the dollar may increase. A firm consolidation above 1.1480 would signal continued euro recovery.

Summary

The USD continues to receive support from the escalation in the Middle East, but the euro is not giving up and is making another attempt to recover. EURUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 1.1480.

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