ECB's hawkish stance pushes EURUSD higher

The euro continues its attempts to strengthen against the USD, having received additional support from the ECB. The EURUSD rate currently stands at 1.1440. Find more details in our analysis for 10 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• On Thursday, the ECB meeting minutes were published
• The euro was bolstered by the ECB’s hawkish minutes
• EURUSD forecast for 10 July 2026: 1.1480 or 1.1395

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the pair continues to strengthen moderately, gradually approaching the psychological 1.1500 mark.

The minutes of the ECB’s June meeting, published on Thursday, became the key trigger for the euro’s strengthening. The document showed that even with almost three expected rate hikes, inflation in the eurozone is projected to remain above the 2% target level next year.

Uncertainty around the US-Iran negotiations, following Trump’s statement that the agreement had run its course, has reignited fears of rising inflation. Higher oil prices are increasing inflationary pressures in the eurozone, which in turn is forcing the market to price in a tougher ECB reaction.

The euro received support from the ECB’s hawkish minutes, which showed that inflation in the eurozone remains persistent even taking into account future rate hikes.

Fundamental analysis for 10 July 2026 takes into account that the market is pricing in around 35 basis points of additional ECB rate hikes by the end of the year, narrowing the rate gap with the US. Against this backdrop, the euro is once again receiving support and is attempting to strengthen.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may form a corrective wave following this signal, with the downside target at the 1.1395 support level. A rebound from this mark would open the way for continued upward movement.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests another scenario, with quotes potentially rising further and testing the 1.1480 resistance level. After breaking it, they may continue the uptrend.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1480 and 1.1565
• Key support levels: 1.1395 and 1.1320

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1395 support level would signal a correction and add to pressure on the euro amid growing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

• Take Profit: 1.1320
• Stop Loss: 1.1415

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 1.1480 resistance level would confirm continued growth and create conditions for a move towards the next resistance level at 1.1565.

• Take Profit: 1.1565
• Stop Loss: 1.1455

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD downside scenario remains a decrease in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In this case, pressure on the dollar may increase. A firm consolidation above 1.1480 would signal continued euro recovery.

Summary

The euro is continuing to strengthen gradually after receiving support from the ECB. At the same time, EURUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards the 1.1395 support level before the uptrend continues.

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