EURUSD risks accelerating its decline after breaking below support level

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure, as the strengthening US dollar amid geopolitical tensions is reinforcing sellers’ positions. The rate currently stands at 1.1406. For more details, see our analysis for 13 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The US dollar is strengthening due to rising demand for safe-haven assets amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East
• The US carried out its fourth strike on Iranian facilities in a week
• Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz until further notice and stated that retaliatory operations would continue
• EURUSD forecast for 13 July 2026: 1.1480 or 1.1395

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is falling for the second consecutive trading session. Sellers continue to increase pressure on the key support level at 1.1405. Consolidation below this mark may confirm the formation of a Double Top reversal pattern, increasing the likelihood of a deeper downward correction.

The US dollar is supported by growing demand for safe-haven assets amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. On Sunday, the US military carried out its fourth strike of the week on facilities in Iran. In response, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked US military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain on Monday. In addition, Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz until further notice, stressing that retaliatory military operations would continue.

Another factor supporting the US currency remains expectations of the publication of key US inflation data, which may determine the further outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Currently, market participants are still pricing in one more Fed interest rate hike before the end of the year.

Technical outlook

The EURUSD rate remains under pressure after breaking below the lower boundary of the ascending corrective channel. Sellers are firmly keeping the price below the EMA-65, indicating stronger bearish momentum and potential for a further decline. Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests continued downward movement with a target at 1.1285.

The technical picture remains favourable for sellers. The Stochastic Oscillator turned downwards after rebounding from the descending resistance line, confirming the likelihood of a renewed decline. An additional signal in favour of the bearish scenario will come from a rebound from the lower boundary of the broken corrective channel, followed by consolidation below the local support level at 1.1385.

An alternative scenario suggests buyers could return to the market if the price breaks above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidates above 1.1435. In this case, the current bearish scenario would be cancelled, and the likelihood of an upward move would rise significantly, with the next upside target at 1.1535.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1435 and 1.1535
• Key support levels: 1.1385 and 1.1335

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the local support level and consolidation below 1.1385 would generate signals for opening short positions and indicate increasing selling pressure.

• Take Profit: 1.1285
• Stop Loss: 1.1435

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the upper boundary of the descending channel, with the price breaking above 1.1435, would indicate the end of the decline and the formation of bullish momentum.

• Take Profit: 1.1535
• Stop Loss: 1.1405

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD downside scenario remains the return of buyers to the market and a breakout above the 1.1435 resistance level, which could indicate weaker bearish momentum. An additional risk factor is a deterioration in the geopolitical situation or weak US data, which may pressure the USD and limit the pair’s further decline.

Summary

The combination of intensifying geopolitical risks and persistently hawkish rhetoric regarding Federal Reserve policy continues to support the US dollar, increasing pressure on the currency pair. As long as quotes remain below key technical levels, today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a decline towards 1.1285.

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