EURUSD at risk: Hormuz and the rate outlook are not encouraging for the market

The EURUSD pair is trading at 1.1394 on Tuesday. No one likes the shift in the news trend. Discover more in our analysis for 14 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is reacting to the deterioration in the news flow
• US inflation data is in focus today
• EURUSD forecast for 14 July 2026: 1.1360 or 1.1450

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.1394, with the US currency supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets. US President Donald Trump reinstated the blockade of Iranian ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and demanded that countries benefitting from the security of this route compensate Washington for the costs of protecting it.

These decisions triggered a new jump in oil prices and increased fears that central banks will have to maintain a hawkish policy stance for longer or raise rates again to curb inflation.

Investors are now focused on US inflation data and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech in Congress. His comments may provide the market with new guidance on the future path of monetary policy.

The likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September is currently estimated at around 51%, while the probability of the rate remaining unchanged stands at around 23%.

The EURUSD forecast is moderately negative.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair maintains a downward trajectory after failing to consolidate above the 1.1450–1.1460 area. Quotes have fallen to 1.1390–1.1400 and are now hovering near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating stronger selling pressure, although the market has already approached a key support zone.

The technical picture remains moderately negative. The nearest support level is located at 1.1360, where buyers have previously been more active. The resistance level lies in the 1.1420–1.1450 area, where the middle Bollinger Band runs. As long as the EURUSD pair remains below this zone, the risk of a retest of the support level remains.

Indicators also point to weakness in the pair. MACD has dropped below the zero mark, confirming strengthening bearish momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory and is beginning to turn upwards, suggesting a short-term technical rebound. The baseline scenario remains movement in the 1.1360–1.1450 range, with a higher probability that pressure on the euro will persist.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1450 and 1.1500
• Key support levels: 1.1360 and 1.1310

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1360 support level would confirm increased selling pressure and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1310
• Stop Loss: 1.1400

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 1.1450 resistance level would indicate the completion of the downward momentum and create conditions for the pair’s recovery.

• Take Profit: 1.1500
• Stop Loss: 1.1415

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD downside scenario remains weaker US inflation data or softer rhetoric from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. These factors may put pressure on the dollar and bring buyers back into the market. An additional risk is easing geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Summary

The EURUSD pair declined and then paused, but market conditions look worrying. The EURUSD forecast for today, 14 July 2026, suggests the price could remain within the 1.1360–1.1450 range.

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