EURUSD gets a boost as weak US inflation hits the dollar

The US CPI, which came in below the previous figure, provided support for the euro. The EURUSD rate is testing the 1.1440 level. Find out more in our analysis for 15 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June: previously at 4.2%, currently at 3.5%
• EURUSD forecast for 15 July 2026: 1.1390 or 1.1480

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the pair continues to strengthen moderately amid weak US inflation data.

The US CPI for June showed inflation slowing more than analysts had forecast, with the previous reading at 4.2% and the actual figure at 3.5%. Against this backdrop, US Treasury yields declined, while the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the next meeting on 28–29 July fell significantly, putting pressure on the dollar.

Rising energy prices once again heightened inflation concerns in the eurozone. The market believes that the European Central Bank may maintain tight monetary policy for longer, supporting the euro against the dollar.

The forecast for 15 July 2026 takes into account that despite the partial weakening of the dollar, further growth in the pair remains limited due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Increased demand for safe-haven assets periodically revives interest in the dollar, preventing the EURUSD pair from consolidating well above current levels.

At present, the advantage is gradually shifting to euro buyers due to easing US inflation and reduced expectations of Federal Reserve policy tightening. At the same time, future EURUSD performance will depend on further comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and subsequent US macroeconomic data, which will determine whether the dollar remains under pressure.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Harami reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, the price may continue its upward wave following the signal received, with the upside target at the 1.1480 resistance level. A breakout above this level will open the way for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests another scenario, with quotes potentially declining and testing the 1.1390 support level. After rebounding, they may continue to rise.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: range
• Key resistance levels: 1.1480 and 1.1615
• Key support levels: 1.1390 and 1.1310

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1390 support level would confirm increased selling pressure and create conditions for opening short positions.

• Take Profit: 1.1310
• Stop Loss: 1.1410

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above the 1.1480 resistance level would indicate further growth and create conditions for the pair’s recovery.

• Take Profit: 1.1615
• Stop Loss: 1.1450

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD upside scenario remains more hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. These factors may put pressure on the euro and bring sellers back into the market.

Summary

Fundamental analysis for 15 July is favourable for the euro, as the USD has lost some of its support following a decline in US inflation. EURUSD technical analysis suggests growth towards 1.1480.

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