EURUSD is under sellers’ control: external conditions leave no chance

The EURUSD pair stopped near 1.1416, with the market keeping an eye on geopolitical developments and speculating about the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. Discover more in our analysis for 21 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair has halted its decline, but the external environment remains unfavourable for risk
• Geopolitics and the Fed rate outlook are currently in focus
• EURUSD forecast for 21 July 2026: 1.1400 or 1.1434

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is hovering around 1.1416 on Tuesday. The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran is supporting the US currency, pushing oil prices higher and reigniting fears about inflation and interest rate hikes.

US strikes on Iran have continued for the tenth day. Donald Trump stated that Tehran would bear responsibility for the deaths of three US soldiers. At the same time, the Iran-backed Houthis announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, increasing the risks to energy supplies through the Red Sea.

The first signals of possible de-escalation have also appeared. Iran reported that mediators had presented proposals to reduce tensions. Media reports suggest that a ten-day truce may be reached.

The market estimates the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September at around 55%, up from 51% a day earlier. Fed officials have already entered the blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting next week, where the rate is expected to remain unchanged.

The EURUSD forecast is moderate.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD rate is undergoing a correction after rising to 1.1480 and is currently trading around 1.1416. The price fell below the middle Bollinger Band and approached the lower boundary of the indicator, indicating continued short-term selling pressure.

The nearest support level is located in the 1.1400–1.1396 zone, with the next key level at 1.1361. Resistance stands at 1.1434 and 1.1453, while a return above 1.1470 will restore the upward momentum. As long as the pair remains below 1.1434, the risk of a retest of the 1.1400 level remains.

MACD moved into negative territory, confirming weakening buying pressure. The Stochastic Oscillator is near oversold territory and is starting to turn upwards, suggesting the decline may slow. The baseline scenario remains consolidation in the 1.1400–1.1434 range with a moderately negative bias.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1434 and 1.1453
• Key support levels: 1.1400 and 1.1361

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1400 support level would confirm increased selling pressure and create conditions for a continued decline, with the nearest target at 1.1361.

• Take Profit: 1.1361
• Stop Loss: 1.1425

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 1.1434 resistance level would indicate a recovery of buyers and open the way to the next level at 1.1453.

• Take Profit: 1.1453
• Stop Loss: 1.1415

Risk factors

The main risk to the bearish scenario remains the de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, which could reduce demand for the dollar. A reassessment of expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike may also support the EURUSD pair. As long as the price remains below 1.1434, sellers retain the upper hand.

Summary

The EURUSD pair has paused its decline, and the external backdrop has deteriorated again. The EURUSD forecast for today, 21 July 2026, suggests that the price will remain within the 1.1400–1.1434 range.

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