EURUSD at a critical level as the market awaits the ECB’s decisive move

The ECB left its interest rate unchanged at 2.4%, but this did not support the euro. The EURUSD rate currently stands at 1.1390. For more details, see our analysis for 24 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• ECB interest rate decision: previously at 2.4%, currently at 2.4%
• The likelihood of an ECB rate hike in September has increased significantly
• EURUSD forecast for 24 July 2026: 1.1475 and 1.1370

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the pair continues to correct after reaching new highs for the current month and is testing the 1.1380 level.

The ECB kept its interest rate unchanged but did not rule out tighter monetary policy. The ECB July meeting was the key event for the euro. The regulator left its key interest rates unchanged, but ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rising energy prices had significantly increased the likelihood of a rate hike in September. The market is already pricing in a high probability of such a move.

Rising energy prices have fuelled concerns about a new wave of inflation in Europe. For the eurozone, which remains a major energy importer, this means higher production costs and additional economic risks, limiting the euro’s appreciation potential.

Higher US Treasury yields and the resilience of the US labour market continue to support demand for the dollar. Geopolitical tensions and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for longer than previously anticipated are providing additional support for the US currency.

Fundamental analysis for 24 July 2026 takes into account that the euro is bolstered by expectations of a possible ECB rate hike in the autumn. However, this effect remains weaker than the influence of the strong dollar, which is benefitting from geopolitical uncertainty and increased inflation risks amid higher oil prices.

Technical outlook

On the EURUSD H4 chart, the price formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes continue to develop an upward wave as the signal plays out, with the potential upside target at the 1.1475 resistance level. A breakout above this level would open the door for an uptrend.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also suggests an alternative scenario, with the price potentially forming a corrective wave and testing the 1.1370 support level before rising.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1475 and 1.1550
• Key support levels: 1.1370 and 1.1325

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the resistance level, followed by consolidation above 1.1475, would indicate increased buying pressure and continued upward momentum towards 1.1550.

• Take Profit: 1.1550
• Stop Loss: 1.1450

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the support level, followed by consolidation below 1.1370, would signal a further correction.

• Take Profit: 1.1325
• Stop Loss: 1.1390

Risk factors

The main risk to the bullish EURUSD scenario remains the buyers’ ability to break above the 1.1475 resistance level. Further support for the euro could come from more hawkish signals from the ECB and a weaker USD.

Summary

The euro remains dependent on geopolitical developments and statements from the Fed and the ECB. By holding the interest rate steady, the ECB triggered a decline in the EURUSD rate. EURUSD technical analysis suggests that the price could rise towards 1.1475.

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