EURUSD slips lower as the US dollar remains strong

The EURUSD pair has fallen to 1.1373, with markets awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision. For more details, see our analysis for 28 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair is losing ground ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting
• The technical sideways trend remains intact, but the likelihood of a decline is increasing
• EURUSD forecast for 28 July 2026: 1.1361 or 1.1402

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate fell to 1.1373 on Tuesday. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision, with the likelihood of a rate hike at the current meeting estimated at over 33%.

This is an unusually high level of uncertainty in the run-up to a central bank meeting, by recent standards. Expectations of a rate hike are based on the view that such a move would strengthen confidence in Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and confirm his determination to bring inflation back under control.

The market estimates the likelihood of a rate hike in September at approximately 56%. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a more restrictive policy continue to support the US dollar ahead of the decision.

The US currency also remained resilient after Donald Trump referred to “good talks” with Iran. Hopes that the conflict may end pushed oil prices lower and slightly reduced inflation risks, although this has not yet put any significant pressure on the US dollar.

The EURUSD outlook is moderately bearish.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD rate remains in a downtrend, trading near 1.1374. The price is below the middle Bollinger Band and has moved close to the indicator’s lower boundary, confirming that sellers retain the advantage.

The key support level is located at 1.1361. A breakout below this mark would strengthen the downward momentum and increase the risk of a further decline. The nearest resistance level lies in the 1.1388–1.1402 area, with the next one at 1.1416. As long as the pair remains below 1.1402, the scope for recovery appears limited.

MACD remains in negative territory, although selling pressure is gradually stabilising. The Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, so a short-term rebound from the 1.1361 support level is possible. The baseline scenario remains movement within the 1.1361–1.1402 range with a moderately bearish bias.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: downward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1402 and 1.1416
• Key support levels: 1.1361 and 1.1325

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1361 support level would confirm increased selling pressure and create conditions for a further decline in the EURUSD rate.

• Take Profit: 1.1325
• Stop Loss: 1.1380

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 1.1402 resistance level would indicate a corrective recovery ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision.

• Take Profit: 1.1416
• Stop Loss: 1.1385

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD bearish scenario remains more dovish signals from the Federal Reserve or the decision to hold rates steady without any hint of further hikes. This could put pressure on the US dollar and push the pair back above 1.1402. As long as the price remains below this level, sellers retain the upper hand.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is declining amid expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s decision. The EURUSD forecast for today, 28 July 2026, suggests continued sideways movement within the 1.1361–1.1402 range with a downward bias.

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