EURUSD rises for a reason: Fed decision in focus

The EURUSD pair climbed to 1.1450 following the Federal Reserve meeting as the market is temporarily disappointed with the US dollar. For more details, see our analysis for 30 July 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair strengthened sharply following the Federal Reserve meeting
• The Middle East adds further reasons for concern
• EURUSD forecast for 30 July 2026: 1.1474

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate rose to 1.1450 on Thursday and is now correcting. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged despite heightened inflation risks caused by a renewed escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

However, three FOMC members supported a rate hike. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasised that the pause should not be regarded as a sign of the regulator’s inaction, with further decisions depending on incoming economic data.

In the Middle East, the US reportedly resumed air strikes on Iran following attacks on American forces in the region. The parties have so far failed to reach an agreement, as Tehran insists on retaining control over the Strait of Hormuz. This continues to fuel concerns about inflation and the future path of interest rates.

The EURUSD outlook is neutral.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a strong upward momentum and is trading near 1.1451. The price moved sharply above the middle Bollinger Band and tested the indicator’s upper boundary, indicating a clear advantage for buyers.

The nearest resistance level lies at 1.1474, followed by 1.1500. Support levels are located at 1.1443 and 1.1428. As long as the pair remains above 1.1443, the baseline scenario suggests another test of the local high.

MACD has moved into positive territory and confirms strengthening upward momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator is in overbought territory, so a pause or short-term correction may follow the sharp rise. The baseline scenario remains movement within the 1.1443–1.1474 range with a moderately positive bias.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.1474 and 1.1500
• Key support levels: 1.1443 and 1.1428

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 1.1474 resistance level would confirm continued upward momentum and create conditions for further EURUSD growth.

• Take Profit: 1.1500
• Stop Loss: 1.1445

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1443 support level would indicate waning buying pressure and a correction after the pair’s sharp rise.

• Take Profit: 1.1428
• Stop Loss: 1.1460

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD bullish scenario remains a recovery in demand for the US dollar amid hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials or renewed inflation fears due to the conflict in the Middle East. As long as the price remains above 1.1443, buyers retain the advantage. However, overbought indicators increase the likelihood of a local correction.

Summary

The EURUSD pair has risen and is consolidating while monitoring the news flow. The EURUSD forecast for today, 30 July 2026, does not rule out a move towards 1.1474 within the sideways range.

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