Fed versus ECB: EURUSD prepares to surprise the market

Ahead of the US employment data, the euro could surprise the market. The EURUSD rate currently stands at 1.1500. Discover more in our analysis for 4 August 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• US JOLTS job openings: previously at 7.594 million, projected at 7.440 million
• US factory orders: previously at −1.3%, projected at 0.2%
• EURUSD forecast for 4 August 2026: 1.1487 and 1.1570

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that the pair continues to correct after its recent rise and is testing the 1.1500 level.

Following the Federal Reserve meeting, investors continue to cautiously reduce their long positions in the US dollar. Despite the Fed’s continued hawkish rhetoric, doubts remain over the need for an imminent interest rate hike, limiting the dollar’s recovery and supporting the euro.

Eurozone economic activity data released at the end of last week reinforced investor confidence that the economy remains resilient. This supports expectations that the ECB will not rush to ease monetary policy, thereby continuing to support the euro.

US JOLTS job openings data and factory orders figures will be released today. These indicators will help assess the state of the US economy ahead of the July Nonfarm Payrolls report due later this week. Strong data could restore support for the dollar, while weak readings would strengthen expectations of Federal Reserve monetary easing.

The forecast for 4 August 2026 takes into account that pressure on the dollar is linked to a revision of expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future actions, while the euro is bolstered by resilient eurozone economic indicators. In the coming days, the market will focus primarily on US data.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, the price continues to develop a corrective wave as the signal plays out, with a potential downside target at the 1.1487 support level. A rebound from this mark would open the way for continued upward momentum.

At the same time, today’s EURUSD forecast also considers an alternative scenario. The pair could continue the upward wave and test the 1.1570 resistance level without first testing support.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1570 and 1.1665
• Key support levels: 1.1487 and 1.1345

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the channel’s upper boundary, followed by consolidation above 1.1570, would create conditions for increased buying pressure.

• Take Profit: 1.1665
• Stop Loss: 1.1545

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the support level, followed by consolidation below 1.1487, would indicate weakening buying pressure and the formation of a downward wave.

• Take Profit: 1.1345
• Stop Loss: 1.1505

Risk factors

The main risk to further EURUSD growth remains buyers’ failure to gain a foothold above 1.1550, which could lead to increased selling pressure. A stronger US dollar amid geopolitical risks and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy would be an additional risk factor.

Summary

US employment data could trigger another upward wave, while EURUSD technical analysis suggests a correction towards 1.1487 before the uptrend resumes.

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