EURUSD gains: focus on geopolitics and ADP data

The EURUSD pair rose to 1.1536, with markets awaiting a Middle East agreement and US data. Discover more in our analysis for 5 August 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

• The EURUSD pair maintains its positive momentum amid geopolitical developments
• The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike fell to 57% from 67% previously
• EURUSD forecast for 5 August 2026: 1.1559

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate climbed to 1.1536 on Wednesday, with the US dollar remaining under pressure. This followed reports of an imminent temporary agreement between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The reports triggered a sharp decline in oil prices and reduced concerns about inflation and further rate hikes.

On Tuesday, Qatar reported that an interim proposal was being prepared, while Washington and Tehran said progress had been made in talks to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that an agreement could be reached as early as Wednesday.

The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell to around 57% from 67% a day earlier. Investors are now awaiting a series of US labour market reports that will help clarify the monetary policy outlook. ADP private sector employment data for July will be released on Wednesday.

The EURUSD outlook is moderately positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair maintains a bullish structure, trading near 1.1536. Following a sharp momentum in late July, the pair entered a consolidation phase but remains above the middle Bollinger Band and is once again approaching the indicator’s upper boundary.

The nearest resistance level is located at 1.1559. A breakout above this mark would allow buyers to continue the rally and reach new local highs. Support levels are located at 1.1519 and 1.1495, with the key level at 1.1454. As long as the price remains above 1.1519, buyers have the upper hand.

MACD remains in positive territory, but the upward momentum is gradually losing strength. The Stochastic Oscillator has entered overbought territory, so a pause or a short-term correction is possible near the 1.1559 resistance level. The baseline scenario remains movement within the 1.1519–1.1559 range with a moderately positive bias.

EURUSD overview

• Asset: EURUSD
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: bullish
• Key resistance levels: 1.1559 and 1.1570
• Key support levels: 1.1519 and 1.1495

EURUSD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 1.1559 resistance level, followed by consolidation above it, would confirm continued upward momentum and create conditions for further EURUSD growth.

• Take Profit: 1.1570
• Stop Loss: 1.1535

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout and consolidation below the 1.1519 support level would indicate easing buying pressure and a short-term correction.

• Take Profit: 1.1495
• Stop Loss: 1.1535

Risk factors

The main risk to the EURUSD bullish scenario remains buyers’ failure to overcome the 1.1559 resistance level while the Stochastic Oscillator is overbought. Strong ADP data, a revival of expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, or a deterioration in the geopolitical backdrop could put additional pressure on the pair. As long as the price remains above 1.1519, buyers retain the advantage.

Summary

The EURUSD pair is gradually rising. The EURUSD forecast for today, 5 August 2026, does not rule out fluctuations within the 1.1519–1.1559 range, with attempts to move higher.

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