EURUSD weekly forecast: the “bears” leave the euro no room

The EURUSD pair starts the week of 22–26 June around 1.1434. The dollar is supported by the outcome of the June Fed meeting and expectations that US interest rates will remain high for an extended period. Upwardly revised inflation forecasts added another supportive factor. Lower geopolitical tension in the Middle East reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

Technically, EURUSD remains under pressure after moving below 1.1500 and is testing June lows around 1.1430–1.1450. While the pair remains below resistance at 1.1530–1.1600, risks remain tilted towards further decline. A break below support at 1.1400 will open the way to 1.1350–1.1300. A return above 1.1530 will allow the market to move into a corrective recovery.

EURUSD forecast for this week: quick overview

• Market focus: EURUSD closed the week at 1.1434. The outcome of the June Fed meeting provided the main support for the dollar. The US regulator left the rate unchanged, but updated forecasts pointed to a more hawkish stance: around half of FOMC members allow for a rate hike in 2026. Upwardly revised inflation forecasts added another factor. The peace agreement between the US and Iran reduced geopolitical risks, but market attention quickly returned to the outlook for US monetary policy.
• Current trend: on the daily chart, EURUSD maintains a downward impulse after failing to hold above 1.1600. The pair updated June lows and moved down into the 1.1430–1.1450 area. Quotes remain below the middle Bollinger Bands line, while the sequence of lower highs and lower lows confirms sellers’ control. Resistance is located in the 1.1530–1.1600 area, support is near 1.1400.
• Weekly outlook: the base scenario assumes continued pressure on the euro. While the pair remains below the 1.1530–1.1600 zone, risks are tilted towards further decline. A break below support at 1.1400 will open the way to the 1.1350–1.1300 area. To improve the technical picture, buyers need to return quotes above 1.1530, which would allow for a corrective rise towards 1.1600.

EURUSD fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair closed the week at 1.1434. Expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve policy after the June meeting were the main driver of the US currency’s strengthening.

The Fed left the interest rate unchanged, but the regulator’s updated forecasts were notably more hawkish. Around half of FOMC members now allow for at least one rate hike in 2026. Inflation forecasts were revised upwards, taking into account the consequences of the Middle East conflict for the global economy.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh avoided direct signals about the regulator’s next step, but confirmed commitment to returning inflation to target levels. This strengthened expectations that US interest rates may remain high for longer than previously assumed.

Another event of the week was the entry into force of an interim peace agreement between the US and Iran, which effectively ended the conflict. It had previously caused serious disruptions to energy supplies through the Middle East. The agreement reduced geopolitical tension and led to a decline in oil prices; markets quickly shifted attention back to the outlook for US monetary policy.

As a result, the Fed factor remains the main source of support for the US dollar.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, EURUSD remains under downward pressure after buyers failed to hold above 1.1600. Over recent trading sessions, the pair declined steadily and moved down to the 1.1430–1.1450 area, updating June lows. Quotes are below the middle Bollinger Bands line, while the indicator itself is turning downwards, pointing to stronger short-term bearish momentum.

The technical picture remains negative. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows confirms sellers’ control over the market. The nearest support is located around 1.1400, and a break below it may open the way for a decline into the 1.1350–1.1300 area. The nearest resistance is the 1.1530–1.1600 range, where selling previously intensified and where the middle Bollinger Bands line was located.

Indicators also favour further euro weakness. MACD remains in negative territory and is forming a new downward impulse, reflecting increased pressure from sellers. The Stochastic is in the oversold zone and warns of a possible short-term technical bounce, but there are still no trend reversal signals. The base scenario remains continued pressure on support at 1.1400, with a risk of further decline.

EURUSD trading scenarios

The EURUSD pair ended the week around 1.1434. Pressure on the euro increased after the June Fed meeting. The regulator left the rate unchanged, but updated forecasts were more hawkish: around half of FOMC members allow for at least one rate hike in 2026. Upwardly revised inflation forecasts also supported the dollar.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh confirmed the commitment to fighting inflation, strengthening expectations that US rates will remain high for an extended period. The peace agreement between the US and Iran reduced geopolitical tension and pressure from the energy market, but Fed policy remained the main factor for the currency market.

From a technical perspective, EURUSD maintains a downtrend after failing to hold above 1.1600. The pair updated June lows and moved down into the 1.1430–1.1450 area. The nearest resistance is in the 1.1530–1.1600 area, support is near 1.1400.

• Buy scenario

A hold above 1.1530 will open upside potential towards 1.1600.

• Sell scenario

A break below support at 1.1400 will increase pressure on the pair and create conditions for a decline to 1.1350–1.1300.

Conclusion: EURUSD maintains a bearish bias, and the main market driver remains expectations of a prolonged period of high US interest rates.

Summary

The EURUSD pair closed the week at 1.1434. The dollar was supported by more hawkish Fed signals after the June meeting. The regulator left the rate unchanged, while updated forecasts strengthened expectations of a prolonged period of high US interest rates.

Technically, EURUSD remains under pressure after failing to stay above 1.1600. The pair moved down to June lows around 1.1430–1.1450. While quotes remain below resistance at 1.1530–1.1600, risks remain tilted towards further decline. A break below support at 1.1400 will open the way to 1.1350–1.1300.

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