Correlation broken, USDCAD rises along with oil

Positive Canadian labour market data is not saving the CAD from losing ground. The USDCAD rate continues to rise and is trading around 1.3940. Find out more in our analysis for 8 June 2026.

USDCAD forecast: key takeaways

• US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 115 thousand, currently at 172 thousand
• Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.6%
• USDCAD forecast for 8 June 2026: 1.3900 and 1.4000

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD forecast for today, 8 June 2026, shows that the pair continued its confident upward movement and reached new highs since late March despite rising oil prices, Canada’s main export commodity. On Monday morning, quotes are consolidating around 1.3940.

The US labour market report, Nonfarm Payrolls, radically changed monetary policy expectations. The economy created 172 thousand jobs, more than double the forecast. Against this backdrop, the USD strengthened once again.

Oil prices began to rise amid fears that the ceasefire between the US and Iran could collapse and lead to a resumption of full-scale conflict. This created a paradoxical situation: rising oil prices, which have historically strengthened the CAD, failed to protect it today. There are two reasons for this: the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates and flight into the USD as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical conflicts.

Strong Canadian labour market data came out on Friday: the economy added 87.8 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.6%. This would seem to have supported the CAD. But the market ignored the positive data as the likelihood of a Bank of Canada rate cut in the coming months is gradually increasing, while the Fed, by contrast, is preparing for a rate hike. This divergence works against the Canadian dollar.

The USDCAD pair is going through a breakdown in the correlation between oil and the Canadian dollar. The pair is climbing higher despite rising oil prices and robust domestic Canadian statistics. The main drivers now are the hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve rate expectations, with the likelihood of a rate hike above 70%, and geopolitical tensions, which are gradually weakening the CAD.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDCAD pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band and currently continues the upward wave following the pattern signal. Since quotes remain within an ascending channel, the price is expected to advance towards the nearest resistance level at 1.4000. A breakout above this level would open the door for a continued uptrend.

At the same time, the forecast for 8 June 2026 also suggests a market scenario in which the USDCAD rate could correct towards 1.3900 before growth.

USDCAD overview

• Asset: USDCAD
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 1.3960 and 1.4000
• Key support levels: 1.3900 and 1.3775

USDCAD trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 1.3960 would confirm USD strengthening and continued upward momentum, which would open the way towards 1.4000.

• Take Profit: 1.4000
• Stop Loss: 1.3940

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 1.3900 support level would signal increased pressure on the USD and a downward wave. In this case, quotes may continue to fall towards 1.3775.

• Take Profit: 1.3775
• Stop Loss: 1.3925

Risk factors

The factors influencing the USDCAD rate remain geopolitics and oil price movements. Rising energy prices are providing limited support for the CAD, while demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset and expectations of tighter Fed monetary policy are keeping the USD strong. If geopolitical risks ease, this may affect the USD and trigger CAD strengthening.

Summary

Positive statistics and rising oil prices fail to support the CAD. USDCAD technical analysis suggests growth towards the 1.4000 resistance level.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The ECB holds rates at 2.15% while the Fed stays at 3.75% — and that divergence is the central driver of EURUSD in 2026. The pair is range-bound between 1.1400 and 1.1915, with Deutsche Bank targeting 1.2500 and Morgan Stanley calling for 1.3000 by year-end. We analyse the technicals, break down the macro factors, and outline three trading scenarios with specific entry levels.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

Where is gold headed after pulling back from the all-time high of 5,597 USD? XAUUSD is consolidating near 4,518 USD between key levels 4,220 USD and 4,855 USD, with major banks targeting 5,243–6,200 USD by year-end. Read our comprehensive gold forecast: technical analysis across three timeframes, trading scenarios with specific entry levels, Fed policy and central bank demand outlook, and institutional predictions for 2026 and beyond.