USDJPY strengthens on expectations of further US economic resilience

The USDJPY rate continues to rise steadily, supported by strong US labour market data. Quotes currently stand at 159.93. Find more details in our analysis for 3 June 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The USDJPY pair approached the 160.00 level, where Japanese authorities had previously conducted currency interventions
• US job openings increased by 731 thousand in April and reached 7.62 million
• Layoffs in the US declined, indicating the resilience of the US labour market
• USDJPY forecast for 3 June 2026: 160.30

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY pair is rising for the fourth consecutive trading session. Buyers have strengthened the upward momentum after a confident breakout above the 159.55 resistance level. The price has now approached the psychologically important 160.00 mark, which had previously triggered official currency intervention by the Japanese authorities.

Although the Japanese yen continues to weaken, market participants still expect another BoJ rate hike at the end of this month. These expectations are fuelled by rising domestic costs, the ongoing weakness of the national currency, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are putting additional pressure on the Japanese economy.

US labour market data released yesterday supported the US dollar. According to the report, job openings in the US rose by 731 thousand in April compared to the previous month and reached 7.62 million, the highest level since November 2024. At the same time, layoffs declined, indicating sustained demand for labour and supporting the current bullish momentum in the USDJPY pair.

Technical outlook

The USDJPY pair continues to consolidate within the Triangle pattern. Buyers are testing the pattern’s upper boundary for the third time, increasing the likelihood of a breakout and a new upward momentum. Despite the sideways movement, the price remains above the EMA-65, indicating that bulls continue to have the upper hand. The USDJPY forecast for today suggests further growth towards the 160.30 level.

The technical picture remains favourable for the upward scenario. The Stochastic Oscillator reached the support zone and formed a bullish crossover, signalling stronger buying activity. A confident breakout above the Triangle pattern’s upper boundary, followed by consolidation above 160.00, would confirm further growth.

An alternative scenario suggests increased selling pressure if the price breaks below the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern and consolidates below 159.75. Such a signal would confirm a shift of initiative to the bears and open the potential for a decline towards 159.35.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: M15 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 160.00 and 160.35
• Key support levels: 159.75 and 159.45

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 160.00 resistance level would indicate the implementation of the Triangle pattern with a target at 160.30 and create conditions for opening long positions.

• Take Profit: 160.30
• Stop Loss: 159.85

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the Triangle pattern’s lower boundary, with the price settling below 159.75, would indicate the formation of a downward signal.

• Take Profit: 159.35
• Stop Loss: 159.65

Risk factors

Risks to the USDJPY upside scenario remain near the 160.00 level, as further weakening of the yen could trigger direct currency intervention by the Japanese authorities. An additional negative factor for buyers will be the failure to consolidate above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern, which could lead to a corrective decline towards 159.35.

Summary

Today’s USDJPY forecast indicates that as long as the price remains above the EMA-65 and there is potential for a breakout above the upper boundary of the Triangle pattern, the growth scenario towards 160.30 remains the priority.

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