USDJPY approaches the zone of possible Japanese interventions

The USDJPY rate continues its confident rise amid strong US inflation data and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its policy tight. The rate currently stands at 160.54. Discover more in our analysis for 11 June 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• US inflation reached its highest level since April 2023 and exceeded market expectations
• Rising inflation strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its policy tight
• Despite accelerating inflation in Japan, the yen remains under pressure
• USDJPY forecast for 11 June 2026: 161.05

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate has been rising for the fifth consecutive trading session, with quotes approaching the key resistance level at 160.50. This mark is attracting particular attention from market participants, as the price has previously reversed downwards from it twice. Many traders associate these moves with currency interventions by the Japanese authorities aimed at supporting the national currency.

US inflation data provided additional support for the dollar. Consumer prices in the US rose by 4.2% year-on-year in May after increasing by 3.8% a month earlier. The reading reached its highest level since April 2023 and exceeded market expectations.

Accelerating inflation fuelled investor concerns about the outlook for US monetary policy. Market participants fear that persistent price pressure will prevent the Federal Reserve from resuming its interest rate cuts any time soon. According to the consensus forecast, the Fed will keep the rate unchanged at its next meeting.

Inflation is also gaining momentum in Japan, with wholesale inflation accelerating at the fastest pace in the past three years amid a sharp rise in energy prices. Nevertheless, the Japanese yen remains under pressure. Investors still prefer the US dollar due to higher yields on US assets and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain tight policy.

Technical outlook

The USDJPY pair continues to move within a stable ascending channel. Buyers remain in control of the market, holding the price above the EMA-65, confirming a bullish bias. Today’s USDJPY forecast suggests continued upward momentum with a target at 161.05.

The technical picture remains favourable for continued growth. The Stochastic Oscillator is rebounding from the upward support line, signalling stronger buying activity and continued potential for new local highs. A confident breakout of the 160.65 level, followed by consolidation above this mark, would further confirm the bullish scenario.

An alternative scenario suggests increased selling pressure if the price breaks below the lower boundary of the ascending channel and consolidates below 160.30. Such a signal would confirm a downward correction and may trigger a deeper pullback from the highs reached.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: M15 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 160.50 and 160.75
• Key support levels: 160.35 and 160.05

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A rebound from the channel’s lower boundary and consolidation above the 160.50 resistance level would confirm stronger bullish momentum.

• Take Profit: 161.05
• Stop Loss: 160.35

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, with prices falling below 159.35, would indicate increased selling pressure and a bearish correction in the pair.

• Take Profit: 159.90
• Stop Loss: 160.60

Risk factors

The risk to the USDJPY upside scenario remains the high probability of currency interventions by the Japanese authorities, since quotes are again approaching the area where the regulator has already intervened in the market to support the yen. More hawkish rhetoric from the Bank of Japan or an unexpected increase in demand for the Japanese currency may put additional pressure on the pair, which could trigger a return below 160.30.

Summary

Despite expectations of a BoJ rate hike, fundamental factors remain in favour of the US dollar. If the 160.50 resistance level is broken, the market may accelerate the upward move with a target at 161.05.

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