The dollar is waiting for support from the Fed: USDJPY is targeting 161.00

The USDJPY pair is trading near the key resistance level at 160.60 as the market awaits the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Hawkish rhetoric from the regulator may support the dollar and pave the way for the pair to rise to 161.00. Discover more in our analysis for 17 June 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• Today, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision
• Hawkish Fed rhetoric may bolster the dollar, pushing the USDJPY pair higher to 161.00
• The interest rate differential between the US and Japan continues to support carry trade operations
• USDJPY forecast for 17 June 2026: 161.00

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 17 June 2026 shows that the USDJPY rate remains near the psychologically important resistance level at 160.60, with the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting becoming the key event for the pair. The market expects the rate to remain at the current level, but the main focus will be on the Fed's comments rather than the decision itself. If the Federal Reserve reiterates a hawkish stance due to high inflation, the dollar may receive additional support, and the USDJPY pair may attempt to consolidate above 160.50.

The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise the rate to 1.00% from the previous 0.75% failed to strengthen the yen noticeably. The reason is that the market had already priced in this move. Meanwhile, the rate differential between the US and Japan still remains in favour of the dollar, so even the Bank of Japan’s rate hike is not yet changing the overall balance of power in the USDJPY pair.

US data came out mixed, but ahead of the Fed meeting, the market is viewing it through the prism of the regulator’s future policy. Import prices rose by 1.9% month-on-month against a forecast of 0.9%, while export prices were up 1.3% month-on-month, above expectations of 1.2%, indicating continued inflationary pressure. At the same time, housing starts fell to 1.177 million against a forecast of 1.430 million, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate dropped to 2.8%. Therefore, the USDJPY forecast remains cautiously positive: hawkish Fed rhetoric may support growth in the pair, but a softer tone from the regulator or signals of a slowdown in the US economy may trigger a pullback from the 160.00–160.50 zone.

The USDJPY forecast is moderately positive.

Technical outlook

The USDJPY pair is trading in an uptrend on the H1 chart; however, as quotes approach the key resistance level at 160.60, the rise has slowed noticeably, suggesting that buyers are cautious ahead of a significant level and are awaiting further fundamental signals from the Fed.

Technical analysis of USDJPY shows that the MACD indicator is in positive territory, supporting the probability of further growth. In addition, the Stochastic Oscillator has moved into oversold territory, signalling the completion of the local correction and a possible resumption of the upward move.

As a result, today’s forecast for USDJPY suggests a breakout above the 160.47 resistance level, followed by growth towards the key resistance at 160.60. A Fed rate hike or hawkish rhetoric in the regulator’s comments could strengthen demand for the dollar and lead to a breakout of the 160.60 level, after which the price could reach 161.00.

The USDJPY forecast for today, 17 June 2026, is moderately positive.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H1 (Intraday)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 160.47 and 160.60
• Key support levels: 160.04 and 159.73

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the 160.47 resistance level would signal continued growth and open the way for the USDJPY rate to move towards 161.00. The catalyst for this move will be the Fed meeting and hawkish rhetoric regarding further monetary policy.

• Take Profit: 161.00
• Stop Loss: 160.28

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the 160.04 support level would increase the risk of a decline towards the nearest support at 159.73. If this level is also broken, the pair may continue to move towards 159.53. This scenario will become more likely if the Federal Reserve adopts dovish monetary policy rhetoric.

• Take Profit: 159.53
• Stop Loss: 160.15

Risk factors

The risk to the USDJPY upside scenario remains the probability of currency interventions by the Japanese authorities. Pressure on the pair may also intensify in the event of soft Fed rhetoric, although the effect may be short-lived, since the wide interest rate differential between the US and Japan will continue to support demand for the dollar through carry trade operations.

Summary

The USDJPY pair has frozen in anticipation of the Federal Reserve meeting. A rate hike or hawkish rhetoric from the regulator may become the catalyst for the pair’s growth towards 161.00.

Open Account

Editors’ picks

EURUSD forecast 2026–2027: technical analysis, price levels & predictions

The ECB holds rates at 2.15% while the Fed stays at 3.75% — and that divergence is the central driver of EURUSD in 2026. The pair is range-bound between 1.1400 and 1.1915, with Deutsche Bank targeting 1.2500 and Morgan Stanley calling for 1.3000 by year-end. We analyse the technicals, break down the macro factors, and outline three trading scenarios with specific entry levels.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026: predictions based on fundamental and technical analysis

Where is gold headed after pulling back from the all-time high of 5,597 USD? XAUUSD is consolidating near 4,518 USD between key levels 4,220 USD and 4,855 USD, with major banks targeting 5,243–6,200 USD by year-end. Read our comprehensive gold forecast: technical analysis across three timeframes, trading scenarios with specific entry levels, Fed policy and central bank demand outlook, and institutional predictions for 2026 and beyond.