USDJPY hits a fresh peak: what can save the yen?

The USDJPY pair has reached 161.80. Interventions and the BoJ’s willingness to raise rates are not helping the yen. The current quote is 161.68. More details are in our analysis for 26 June 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The USDJPY pair continues to rise and is targeting a new high since 1986
• The interest rate gap between the Fed and the BoJ is too wide
• USDJPY forecast for 26 June 2026: 162.00 or 163.00

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate rose to 161.80 on Friday, which is very close to the weakest level since 1986. Pressure remains in place despite Tokyo inflation data: the core reading accelerated for the first time in eight months. This increased expectations of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

The regulator’s rhetoric remains hawkish. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed readiness to continue raising rates, while board member Naoki Tamura argued for more frequent moves, including hikes every few months. The next meeting is scheduled for 31 July.

Nevertheless, the yen remains under pressure. Even currency interventions and verbal signals from Japan’s Ministry of Finance are not changing the picture so far. The reason is that the strong dollar and the significant rate gap with the US continue to weigh on the Japanese currency.

The market expects that the US Federal Reserve may raise rates later this year. This only deepens the imbalance.

The forecast for USDJPY is positive.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, USDJPY remains in a steady upward trend. After a confident rise from the 159.50 area, the quotes consolidated above 161.50 and are now trading near 161.80, very close to the important resistance at 162.00. The price remains above the middle Bollinger Band, while the bands themselves are pointing upwards, which confirms that buyers remain in control.

The technical picture remains positive. The nearest resistance is located at 162.00. A confident breakout of this level will signal further growth with the potential to move into the 163.00 area. The nearest support lies at 161.10–161.20, where the middle Bollinger Band passes. As long as the quotes remain above this zone, upward momentum remains intact.

The indicators confirm the dominance of bullish sentiment, although the pace of growth is gradually slowing. MACD remains in positive territory, but the histogram is falling, which signals weaker impulse. Stochastic has turned down from the upper part of the range, warning of a possible short-term correction or consolidation before a fresh attempt to attack 162.00. The base scenario remains preservation of the upward trend with the prospect of testing resistance at 162.00 and possible further growth to 163.00.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday / short-term)
• Trend: upward
• Key resistance levels: 162.00 and 163.00
• Key support levels: 161.20 and 159.50

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout of 162.00 with consolidation above it will confirm that upward momentum remains in place and open the way to fresh highs since 1986, with the potential to move into the 163.00 area.

• Take Profit: 163.00
• Stop Loss: 161.20

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A break of support at 161.20 with consolidation below it will indicate a correction amid profit-taking and weaker impulse, with a possible decline to the 160.20–159.50 area.

• Take Profit: 160.20
• Stop Loss: 162.20

Risk factors

The main risks to the USDJPY growth scenario remain strong overbought conditions and slowing impulse, as indicated by the indicators. Nevertheless, the fundamental factor, namely the rate gap between the Fed and the Bank of Japan, continues to support the upward trend and limit the depth of possible pullbacks.

Summary

The USDJPY pair continues to rise despite intentions to support the yen through interventions by the Bank of Japan. The forecast for USDJPY for today, 26 June 2026, does not rule out a test of 162.00 and a further move to 163.00.

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