USDJPY is on hold: no new measures to support the yen are coming

The USDJPY pair is hovering around 162.15. The yen has support, but it is failing to move away from the 40-year low. Discover more in our analysis for 15 July 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The USDJPY pair has stopped moving rapidly, with the yen’s outlook appearing uncertain
• The Japanese authorities are not rushing to introduce new measures to support the JPY
• USDJPY forecast for 15 July 2026: 161.50 or 162.55

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate stabilised at 162.15 on Wednesday, with the yen supported by a weaker USD after weaker-than-expected US inflation data. The figures reduced concerns about a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.

However, the yen’s outlook remains uncertain due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Oil prices rose again after Donald Trump threatened Iran with additional strikes and reinstated the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

Domestic data also fails to support the currency. Machinery orders in Japan fell more sharply than expected in May, indicating weak business investment.

Despite the local recovery, the yen remains near 40-year lows. The Japanese authorities have not yet announced any specific measures to support the currency. Reports of no plans to revise the asset structure of the state pension fund have further dampened expectations of imminent support for the domestic market.

The USDJPY forecast is limited.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair is trading around 162.15 and continues its sideways movement after recovering from the 161.50 area. Quotes are holding near the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting a balance between buyers and sellers. At the same time, the price remains close to local highs, so moderate upward potential remains.

The nearest resistance level lies in the 162.50–162.55 zone, while a stronger barrier stands around 162.85–162.90. Support levels are located at 161.85 and 161.50. As long as the USDJPY pair remains above 161.85, the market retains the chance of a retest of the range’s upper boundary. A breakout below the 161.50 level will increase the risk of a decline towards 161.15.

MACD is near the zero mark and shows weak positive momentum. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned upwards and is approaching overbought territory, supporting short-term growth, but also increasing the likelihood of a local correction. The baseline scenario remains movement in the 161.50–162.55 range with a moderately positive bias.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
• Trend: sideways with a moderately upward bias
• Key resistance levels: 162.55 and 162.90
• Key support levels: 161.50 and 161.15

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout and consolidation above the 162.55 resistance level would confirm increased buying pressure and open the way to the upper boundary of the range.

• Take Profit: 162.90
• Stop Loss: 162.20

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

Consolidation below the 161.50 support level would signal a downward move and stronger demand for the Japanese yen.

• Take Profit: 161.15
• Stop Loss: 161.80

Risk factors

The main risk to the USDJPY upside scenario remains possible currency intervention by the Japanese authorities or more hawkish rhetoric from the Bank of Japan. Additional pressure on the pair may come from weak US data and a further decline in expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, which may support the yen and push quotes back below 161.50.

Summary

The USDJPY rate has stabilised, but remains near the 40-year high. The USDJPY forecast for today, 15 July 2026, does not rule out continued movement within the 161.50–162.55 range.

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