USDJPY holds the 155.85 support level after large-scale currency operations

The USDJPY rate is recovering after a sharp decline amid intervention by the US and Japanese authorities, with the rate currently at 157.64. For more details, see our analysis for 4 August 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The Bank of Japan reported currency operations totalling approximately 5.33 trillion yen on Friday
• BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated the need to maintain heightened focus on inflation
• The Bank of Japan remains prepared to adjust monetary policy depending on future inflation trends
• USDJPY forecast for 4 August 2026: 155.15

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate entered a correction phase after four consecutive trading sessions of declines triggered by coordinated action from the US and Japanese authorities to stabilise the currency market. Buyers managed to hold the key support level near 155.85, allowing the pair to begin a recovery.

According to BoJ data, Tokyo spent around 5.33 trillion yen on currency operations on Friday. This followed reports of a record one-day intervention a day earlier, worth approximately 8.45 trillion yen, aimed at supporting the Japanese currency.

Earlier, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged, fully in line with market expectations. At the same time, the regulator noted persistent inflation risks associated with rising prices amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and robust domestic demand.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed the need to remain highly attentive to inflation risks, indicating the regulator’s readiness to continue closely monitoring price movements and adjust monetary policy if necessary.

Technical outlook

The USDJPY rate is developing a corrective move while forming a Wedge reversal pattern. Buyers gained a foothold above the EMA-65, signalling increased bullish pressure. However, today’s USDJPY forecast suggests that the downward move could resume towards 155.15.

Indicator analysis confirms the potential for a further decline in the USDJPY rate. The Stochastic Oscillator has reached overbought territory and is testing a descending resistance line, which may indicate a new bearish momentum. A confident breakout below the 157.05 support level would further confirm continued downside, indicating a breakout out of the Wedge reversal pattern.

At the same time, the risk of a continued bullish correction remains. A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel and consolidation above 158.35 would signal a further increase in buying pressure and invalidate the current bearish scenario.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: M15 (intraday)
• Trend: bearish
• Key resistance levels: 158.15 and 158.65
• Key support levels: 157.15 and 156.10

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the lower boundary of the Wedge reversal pattern, followed by consolidation below 157.15, would indicate increased selling pressure and a renewed decline.

• Take Profit: 155.15
• Stop Loss: 158.45

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the upper boundary of the descending channel, followed by consolidation above 158.35, would invalidate the Wedge reversal pattern and signal continued growth.

• Take Profit: 160.25
• Stop Loss: 157.95

Risk factors

The main risk to the USDJPY bearish scenario remains sustained buying pressure following currency interventions and consolidation above key resistance levels. A breakout above the 158.35 area and an exit from the descending channel could invalidate the bearish scenario and extend the upward correction.

Summary

The USDJPY rate retains the potential for a further decline after the corrective recovery is complete, with a breakout below the 157.05 support level serving as the key signal for sellers.

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