USDJPY pauses ahead of Nonfarm Payrolls

Attempts by the Japanese and US governments to strengthen the yen had only a temporary effect. The USDJPY rate currently stands at 157.65. Discover more in our analysis for 5 August 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

• The Bank of Japan may continue to tighten monetary policy
• The market is awaiting the Nonfarm Payrolls report
• USDJPY forecast for 5 August 2026: 156.00 and 159.35

Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis for 5 August 2026 shows that the yen is losing ground again following the Japanese government’s intervention and is testing the 157.65 level.

The main focus remains the joint currency intervention by Washington and Tokyo. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the US readiness to continue supporting Japan’s efforts to stabilise the yen. This significantly reduced speculative pressure on the Japanese currency and prompted market participants to be more cautious about betting against the yen.

Following statements by US and Japanese officials, the market increased the likelihood that the Bank of Japan may continue to tighten monetary policy at its September meeting. Expectations of an interest rate hike are becoming the main fundamental factor supporting the yen.

The key trigger for the USDJPY pair this week is the release of the July Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. Its results could significantly alter expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s future actions and become a key driver of the USDJPY rate in the coming days.

The analysis for 5 August 2026 takes into account that the fundamental backdrop for the USDJPY pair has become more balanced. The yen is supported by the joint currency intervention by the US and Japan and growing expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike. At the same time, the pair’s further movement will largely depend on US macroeconomic data, which will determine whether the Federal Reserve remains prepared for further monetary policy tightening.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, the USDJPY rate formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and is trading around 157.60. Since the price has broken out of the ascending channel, it could form an upward wave as the pattern signal plays out and return to the channel, with the first upside target at 159.35.

The USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario in which the pair could test the 156.00 support level before rising.

USDJPY overview

• Asset: USDJPY
• Timeframe: H4 (intraday)
• Trend: range
• Key resistance levels: 159.35 and 161.50
• Key support levels: 156.00 and 155.60

USDJPY trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below the support level, followed by consolidation below 156.00, would indicate increased selling pressure and a continued decline.

• Take Profit: 155.60
• Stop Loss: 156.20

Alternative scenario (Buy Stop)

A breakout above the resistance level, followed by consolidation above 159.35, would signal further growth.

• Take Profit: 161.50
• Stop Loss: 159.15

Risk factors

The main risk to the USDJPY downside scenario is continued strong buying pressure following currency interventions and consolidation above key resistance levels. Geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices could add to pressure on the yen and push the USDJPY rate higher.

Summary

The intervention provided temporary support for the yen, with the market now awaiting US employment data. USDJPY technical analysis suggests a rise towards the 159.35 resistance level.

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