DE 40 forecast: the index enters a correction

The DE 40 stock index entered a correction after reaching a new all-time high. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: Germany’s industrial production rose by 1.9% month-on-month in May
• Market impact: the data creates a moderately positive backdrop for the German stock market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

The publication of German industrial production data is a moderately positive signal for the DE 40 index. In May, the indicator rose by 0.9% compared to the previous month, significantly exceeding the forecast of 0.1%. Furthermore, output continued to rise following a revised increase of 0.2% in April. This significant improvement indicates that Germany’s industrial sector proved stronger than market participants had anticipated.

Since the DE 40 index includes the country’s largest publicly traded companies and represents the main part of German stock market capitalisation, improved macroeconomic indicators may support its price. In the short term, the news could boost demand for shares of companies whose financial results directly depend on industrial production, corporate investment, and export volumes.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index formed the nearest resistance level at 25,925.0, while the key support level is located near 24,570.0. Quotes entered a correction after hitting a new all-time high. At the same time, the medium-term uptrend remains intact. In this scenario, the nearest target for further upward movement is 26,530.0.

The DE 40 price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 24,570.0 support level could send the index down to 24,035.0
• Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 25,925.0 resistance level could drive the index up to 26,530.0

Summary

Overall, the impact on the DE 40 should be assessed as positive, but not sufficient to trigger a sustained upward movement on its own. The strong outperformance versus the forecast may support the index and increase investor interest in German industrial stocks. Another positive factor is the 1.9% increase in new manufacturing orders in May, although part of this increase was driven by large orders in the transport engineering sector. At the same time, the further direction of the DE 40 will depend on the state of global trade. The nearest upside target remains 26,530.0.

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