DE 40 forecast: index gears up for a correction

The DE 40 stock index has broken out of its sideways channel and reached a new all-time high. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: Germany’s CPI rose by 0.8% in July 2026
• Market impact: the data creates a moderately negative backdrop for the German stock market

DE 40 fundamental analysis

The published inflation data in Germany generally creates a moderately negative backdrop for the DE 40 index, although the likelihood of a sharp negative market reaction is limited, as the figure fully matched expectations. The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.8% month-on-month in July after falling by 0.3% in June, while annual inflation accelerated to 2.8%. Germany’s Federal Statistical Office also notes that a significant increase in fuel prices was one of the key drivers of price growth: motor fuel prices rose by 11.2% over the month.

For the DE 40, the key issue is not so much the 0.8% rise in prices itself as its potential impact on the European Central Bank’s future monetary policy. In June, the ECB had already raised its key interest rates by 25 basis points, citing increased inflation risks. According to the ECB’s June forecast, average inflation in the eurozone could reach around 3.0% in 2026, with the regulator separately highlighting the impact of high energy prices and the risk that these increases could spread further to goods and services.

DE 40 technical analysis

The DE 40 index continues to rise, but momentum is weakening. A downward correction is highly likely. The nearest resistance level is located at 26,515.0, while the main support lies near 26,080.0. Only a breakout below the support level could signal a trend reversal. The next potential upside target could be 27,040.0.

The DE 40 price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout below the 26,080.0 support level could send the index down to 25,590.0
• Optimistic DE 40 scenario: a breakout above the 26,515.0 resistance level could boost the index up to 27,040.0

Summary

Overall, the CPI report can be assessed as neutral-to-negative for the DE 40 in the short term and moderately negative in the broader fundamental context. The main positive factor is that inflation did not exceed the forecast, so the market received no new unexpected signal of a sharp increase in price pressures. The main negative factor is the scale of the monthly acceleration itself – from −0.3% to +0.8% – and confirmation that the energy factor continues to support inflation. The nearest upside target remains 27,040.0.

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