US 500 forecast: the index resumes growth

The US 500 index resumed its upward momentum after the acute phase of the conflict between the US and Iran ended. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

• Recent data: the US CPI rose by 4.2% year-on-year in May
• Market impact: this data is moderately negative for the stock market

US 500 fundamental analysis

US inflation data appears negative for the US 500 index, although the actual reading matched the forecast. The key point here is not that the figures matched expectations, but rather the acceleration in inflation from 3.8% to 4.2% year-on-year. This means that price pressure in the US economy is increasing, while the disinflation process may prove slower than market participants expected.

For the US 500 index, such statistics typically create pressure. Higher inflation reduces the likelihood of near-term monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve and may fuel expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer. For the stock market, this is an unfavourable factor, as high rates increase the cost of capital for companies, reduce the attractiveness of future earnings, and make bonds more competitive than stocks.

US 500 technical analysis

The US 500 index resumed growth. The 7,470.0 resistance level has been broken, while the key support level has formed around 7,255.0. If the trend continues, the nearest upside target could be 7,720.0.

The US 500 price forecast outlines the following scenarios:

• Pessimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout below the 7,255.0 support level could send the index down to 7,115.0
• Optimistic US 500 forecast: a breakout above the 7,470.0 resistance level could boost the index up to 7,720.0

Summary

Overall, the published inflation data is rather negative. The fact that the actual CPI matched the forecast reduces the risk of a sharp sell-off, but the acceleration in inflation relative to the previous reading worsens the broader macroeconomic backdrop. If the market believes the Federal Reserve will be forced to maintain a restrictive stance for longer, the index may face corrective pressure, especially in technology and consumer stocks. Defensive sectors and some companies with strong cash flow, resilient margins, and low debt may look more stable. From a technical analysis perspective, the US 500 index could rise to 7,720.0.

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